基于模糊实物期权的IT企业战略投资决策  

IT Strategic Decisions Based on Fuzzy Real Options

作　　者：彭斌 彭绯[3] PENG Bin;PENG Fei(SEME,Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Beijing 100044,China;School of Business,Renmin University,Beijing 100872,China;Elec trical&Computer Engineering,UBC,Vancouver,B.C.V6T 1Z4 Canada)

机构地区：[1]北京建筑大学经济与管理工程学院,北京100044 [2]中国人民大学商学院,北京100872 [3]大不列颠哥伦比亚大学电子工程系,加拿大V6T1Z4

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2019年第24期281-288,共8页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

摘　　要：在模糊框架下,提出了一种启发性的实物期权方法,根据梯形模糊数估计期望现金流和期望成本的现值,借助模糊数的数学期望值和方差,确定最佳执行时间,最后就该方法在欧洲某IT电讯公司投资战略中进行实证分析.We introduce a heuristic real option rule in a fuzzy setting,where the present values of expected cash flows and trapezoidal fuzzy number estimates expected costs.Then we det ermine the optimal exercise time by the help of possibilistic mean value and variance of fuzzy numbers.In the end we analyze the method through the factual example about the investment strategic decisions in European IT enterprises.

关 键 词：梯形模糊数 实物期权 IT战略投资 

分 类 号：F49[经济管理—产业经济] F275F224F831.53