基于日尺度的安徽省冬小麦生长过程阴湿害灾损评估模型研究  

A Yield Loss Evaluation Model for Winter Wheat Overcast and Waterlogging Disaster Based on Daily Accumulation in Whole Development Stage in Anhui Province

作　　者：陈金华[1] 岳伟[1] 吴文革[2] 许有尊[2] 乔玉强[3] 刘瑞娜[1] 杨太明 CHEN Jinhua;YUE Wei;WU Wenge;XU Youzun;QIAO Yuqiang;LIU Ruina;YANG Taiming(Anhui Agrometeorological Center/Anhui Rural Comprehensive Economic Information Center,Hefei,Anhui 230031,China;Rice Research Institute,Anhui Academy of Agriculture Sciences,Hefei,Anhui 230031,China;Crop Research Institute,Anhui Academy of Agriculture Sciences,Hefei,Anhui 230031,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽省农业气象中心\安徽省农村综合经济信息中心,安徽合肥230031 [2]安徽省农业科学院水稻研究所,安徽合肥230031 [3]安徽省农业科学院作物研究所,安徽合肥230031

出　　处：《麦类作物学报》2020年第1期127-134,共8页Journal of Triticeae Crops

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFD0300905,2018YFD0300906,2018YFD0300903);安徽省重点研究与开发计划(1804a07020124)。

摘　　要：为了构建日尺度的冬小麦阴湿害评估方法,综合应用基于HP滤波趋势产量分解法的安徽省冬小麦历年气象减产率数据、地面气象观测数据,以日尺度的标准化前期降水蒸散指数、日照百分率为阴湿害关键影响因子,通过有效阴湿害积与过程敏感性耦合方式,构建冬小麦全生育期阴湿害综合指数(overcast and waterlogging composite index,OWCI),并选取阴湿害典型年样本,分别以Logistic曲线敏感性、等敏感性两种方法计算的阴湿害综合气象指数OWCIs、OWCIe为自变量、气象减产率(△Y)为因变量进行相关性分析,比较、验证两种方法在冬小麦阴湿害评估中的差异性与适用性。结果表明,△Y与两种方法的阴湿害综合气象指数均呈显著二次曲线相关,R^2分别为0.843、0.805;检验样本的△Y实测值与两种方法模拟值的R^2分别达0.685、0.573。对两种方法比较,Logistic曲线敏感性法建模的拟合性、误差、检验效果均优于等敏感性法,其气象减产率的均方根误差从7.78%下降到6.97%。应用Logistic曲线敏感性法模拟的2016年冬小麦阴湿害灾损率值与调查值基本吻合。反演计算的1981-2010年灾损率气候态均值南高北低,符合安徽省实际分布型,但2011年以来的灾损率均值普遍高于30年气候态均值,可见近年来阴湿害影响有加重趋势。因此,基于有效阴湿害积与过程敏感性耦合应用构建的冬小麦生长过程阴湿害灾损评估模型,能差异化表征不同阶段的阴湿害影响贡献,可应用于冬小麦阴湿害影响评估。Most of the widely used evaluation indices of overcast and waterlogging are based on the meteorological parameters of more than ten days scale,which smoothes or equalizes the influence of the process of overcast and waterlogging.In this paper,based on the data of meteorological yield reduction rate and ground meteorological observation data of winter wheat in Anhui Province over the years based on the HP filter trend yield decomposition method,an overcast and waterlogging composite index(OWCI)for winter wheat whole development stage was constructed,with the daily standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index and sunshine percentage as the key influencing factors.The correlation analysis was carried out by selecting the typical year samples of the overcast and waterlogging.Taking the comprehensive meteorological indices calculated by the Logistic curve sensitivity and the equal sensitivity as the independent variables and the meteorological yield reduction rate(△Y)as the dependent variables,we compared and verified the difference and applicability of the two methods in the overcast and waterlogging assessment of winter wheat.The results showed that△Y is significantly related to the comprehensive meteorological index of the two methods,and R^2 is 0.843 and 0.805,respectively.R^2 of the measured value of the test sample and the simulated value of the two methods for△Y are 0.685 and 0.573,respectively.In comparison,the sensitivity method of Logistic curve is better in correlation,error and test effect,and the RMS error of meteorological yield reduction rate is reduced from 7.78%to 6.97%.The damage rate of winter wheat in 2016 simulated by the sensitivity method of Logistic curve was basically consistent with the observed value.The climatic base state average value of the disaster damage rate calculated by inversion from 1981 to 2010 is higher in the South than that in the north,which is consistent with the actual distribution pattern of Anhui province.However,annual mean values of simulation yield loss ra

关 键 词：安徽 冬小麦 有效阴湿害积 过程敏感性 灾损评估 日尺度 

分 类 号：S512.1[农业科学—作物学] S314