基于动态SDM的中国区域碳排放强度空间效应研究  

A Study on Spatial Effect of Regional Carbon Emission Intensity based on Dynamic SDM in China

作　　者：周四军[1] 江秋池 ZHOU Si-jun;JIANG Qiu-chi(College of Finance and Statistics, Hunan University, Changsha 410079, China)

机构地区：[1]湖南大学金融与统计学院

出　　处：《湖南大学学报（社会科学版）》2020年第1期40-48,共9页Journal of Hunan University(Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目:中国能源高质量发展的统计监测研究(19ATJ007)

摘　　要：利用中国各省市区2005-2017年的数据,在碳排放强度测度和空间自相关检验的基础上,构建动态空间杜宾模型(SDM)研究中国区域碳排放强度的空间效应。研究表明中国区域间的碳排放强度具有显著的空间效应。经济增长、技术投入对碳排放强度产生负向的空间直接效应,产业结构、能源强度、能源消费结构对碳排放强度产生正向的空间直接效应,并且长期效应大于短期效应;技术投入对碳排放强度产生负向的空间溢出效应,产业结构、能源强度对碳排放强度产生正向的空间溢出效应,且能源强度仅存在短期的空间溢出效应;经济增长、能源消费结构对碳排放强度的空间溢出效应不显著。On the basis of carbon emission intensity measurement and spatial autocorrelation test,dynamic spatial Durbin model(SDM)was constructed to study the spatial effect of carbon emission intensity in China from 2005 to 2017.The results show that the interregional carbon emission intensity in China has a significant spatial effect.Economic growth and technology input have negative direct spatial effects on carbon emission intensity,while industrial structure,energy intensity and energy consumption structure have positive direct spatial effects on carbon emission intensity,and the long-term effects are greater than the short-term effects.Technology investment has negative spatial spillover effect on carbon emission intensity.Industrial structure and energy intensity have positive spatial spillover effect on carbon emission intensity,but energy intensity only has short-term spatial spillover effect.The spatial spillover effect of economic growth and energy consumption structure on carbon emission intensity is not significant.

关 键 词：碳排放强度 动态SDM 空间效应 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济]