基于模糊动态夏普利值的流域水污染治理效用分配研究  

Research on utility allocation in water pollution abatement of river basin based on fuzzy dynamic Shapley value

作　　者：赖苹[1] 曹国华[2] 朱勇[1] LAI Ping;CAO Guo-hua;ZHU Yong(School of Economics and Management,Chongqing Normal University,Chongqing 401331,China;School of Economics and Business Administration,Chongqing University,Chongqing 400030,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆师范大学经济与管理学院,重庆401331 [2]重庆大学经济与工商管理学院,重庆400030

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2019年第6期2112-2119,共8页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究项目(15YJCZH075);重庆市教委科学技术研究项目(KJ1500340);重庆师范大学博士启动基金项目(16XWB009)

摘　　要：针对流域内上下游地区严峻的水污染治理形势,须通过地区间联动实现区域的协调可持续发展。各地区合作时常常面临诸多不确定的风险因素,既有外部风险,也有内部风险。而每个地区都会面临政治风险、经济风险、自然环境风险等外部风险,并将平均承担风险带来的影响。为了解决污染治理产生的效用在参与各地区之间进行合理有效分配的问题,通过重点考察组织风险、资金风险、信息风险、道德风险等内部风险因素对各地区参与水污染治理合作积极性的影响,提出了基于内部风险的模糊动态夏普利值的解的概念。并选取流域相邻三地区(分别代表上、中、下游地区)作为研究对象,分别构建了各自为政、两两合作、三地区合作等三类水污染治理动态模型,运用贝尔曼动态规划求出效用函数和参数需要满足的动态系统,最后用模糊动态夏普利值的方法进行求解。通过数值算例分析验证,三地区在连续时间内分配额度的变化反映了各地区从不参与合作到更多地参与合作的整个过程。结果证明方法可行,可为解决流域水污染治理存在的效用分配问题提供一种切实可行的办法。The upstream and downstream regions of the river basin are inseparable organic whole. The situation of water pollution abatement is grim. Regions can truly achieve the balanced and sustainable development only through regional linkage. As players,regions often face many uncertain risk factors. There are both external and internal risks. Each region faces external risks such as political risks,economic risks and natural environmental risks,and equally bears the impact of these risks. The paper focused on the impact of internal risks such as organizational risks,capital risks,information risks and moral risks. Different assessment values of internal risks in different regions directly affected the enthusiasm of participating in water pollution abatement cooperation. The lower the risk,the higher the degree of participation;The higher the risk,the lower the degree of participation.Utility allocation is a conundrum of water pollution abatement cooperation. The paper proposed fuzzy dynamic Shapley value based on inner risk. Put three adjacent regions as research objects,representing the upper,middle and lower reaches of the river basin respectively. Considering the existence of internal risk factors,it established water pollution abatement dynamic models including self-governing, two-region cooperation and three-region cooperation in continuous time. Applied Bellman Dynamic Programming to obtain utility function and dynamic systems which parameters satisfied. Firstly,calculated the internal risk evaluation value of each region. Then calculated the parameter values of the three regions under different coalitions. Finally calculated the results of utility allocation using the fuzzy dynamic Shapley value. The results reflected the change of allocation amount among three regions in continuous time,from non-participation to more cooperation. The results show that this method was feasible. It provided a practical solution to the problem of utility allocation and a good reference for policy-making departments.

关 键 词：环境学 模糊动态夏普利值 全流域 水污染治理 效用分配 

分 类 号：X3[环境科学与工程—环境工程]