云南省水资源政策效应模拟及预测研究  

Simulation and Prediction of Water Resources Policy Effect in Yunnan Province

作　　者：李敏 刘春学 李春雪 徐爽 LI Min;LIU Chunxue;LI Chunxue;XU Shuang(School of Urban and Environment, Yunnan University of Finance and Economics, Kunming 650221, China;School of Economics, Kunming University, Kunming 650124, China;School of Business Administration, Northeastern University, Shenyang 110819, China)

机构地区：[1]云南财经大学城市与环境学院,昆明650221 [2]昆明学院经济学院,昆明650214 [3]东北大学工商管理学院,沈阳110819

出　　处：《地域研究与开发》2020年第1期133-138,共6页Areal Research and Development

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41562017);云南省省院省校教育合作人文社会科学研究项目(SYSX201511)

摘　　要：水资源是区域经济发展的基础和约束条件,结合目前水资源日益趋向需求侧管理的现实,建立包含水资源要素的可计算一般均衡模型,模拟分析云南省供水量、水价、用水效率和水利技术的变化对云南省主要经济指标的影响。结果表明:由于水在生产生活中的特殊性,供水量减少将导致区域产出降低、居民收入减少、社会整体福利水平下降、整体经济增速变缓。水价提高能够有效降低区域用水量,进而缓解水资源稀缺与浪费并存的矛盾,但其代价是短期内区域经济萎缩。通过提高水价来减轻水资源供求矛盾并非权宜之计,而水效率和水利技术的提高能够有效缓解区域水资源的供需矛盾,并带来区域产出、社会福利水平的上升。因此,云南省水资源政策应强化用水效率和水利技术,转变粗放的用水方式,缓解水资源的供需矛盾。Considering the current trend of demand-side management of water resources,this paper introduces a computable general equilibrium model incorporating water resources elements.Based on the data from the input-output table of Yunnan Province,the simulation analyzed the impact of regional water supply,water price,water efficiency and water technology on the main economic indicators of Yunnan Province.The simulation results show that:Due to the irreplaceability of water resources in production and life,the reduction of water supply will lead to slower growth of regional economic development,lower output,lower income of residents,and lower overall social welfare;Increased water price can effectively reduce regional water consumption,and then solve the dilemma of water scarcity and waste,but the negative impact of it is that the regional overall economy is shrinking.It can be seen that it is not a long-term solution to reduce the contradiction of water supply and demand by raising water prices;and the improvement of water efficiency and water technology can effectively alleviate the contradiction between supply and demand of resources,and rise regional output and social welfare level,eventually realize the transformation of water resources utilization and economic development mode in Yunnan Province.Therefore,the water resources policy of Yunnan Province should strengthen water use efficiency and water conservancy technology,transform water resources utilization and economic development mode,build a water-saving society,and thus alleviate the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources.

关 键 词：水资源 政策效应 一般均衡分析 情景分析 云南省 

分 类 号：F062.1[经济管理—政治经济学]