RCP4.5情景下贵州省潜在蒸散量及地表湿润度变化预估  

Projected Changes of Potential Evapotranspiration and Surface Moisture Indexin Guizhou Province under RCP 4.5 Scenario

作　　者：韩会庆 张朝琼[2] 白玉梅 张新鼎 周茜茜 HAN Huiqing;ZHANG Chaoqiong;BAI Yumei;ZHANG Xinding;ZHOU Qianqian(College of Architecture and Urban Planning,Guizhou Institute of Technology,Guiyang 550003,Guizhou;School of Geography and Environmental Science,Guizhou Normal University,Guiyang 550001,Guizhou)

机构地区：[1]贵州理工学院建筑与城市规划学院,贵州贵阳550003 [2]贵州师范大学地理与环境科学学院,贵州贵阳550001

出　　处：《四川师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2020年第2期277-284,共8页Journal of Sichuan Normal University（Natural Science）

基　　金：贵州省教育厅青年科技人才成长项目(黔教合KY字[2017]217)。

摘　　要：基于贵州省19个气象站点逐日和逐月观测数据以及2016—2100年气候预估数据,利用修正的Thornthwaite法,分析RCP4.5情景下2016—2100年贵州省潜在蒸散量变化趋势,进而研究地表湿润度变化趋势.结果表明:RCP4.5情景下未来85 a间,全年和四季的潜在蒸散量均呈现增加趋势,增长幅度为:夏季春季秋季冬季.除春季外,全年、夏季、秋季和冬季的地表湿润度指数均呈下降趋势.全年和四季的地表湿润度变化分别存在1个和2个时间尺度周期振荡,55 a是全年、夏季、秋季和冬季地表湿润度变化的第1主周期,56 a是春季地表湿润度变化的第1主周期.The paper analyzed change trend of potential evapotranspiration from 2016 to 2100 under RCP4.5 scenario in Guizhou Province,by the method of modified Thornthwaite based on the 19 weather stations in daily and monthly observation data and climate forecast data from 2016 to 2100,and explored change trend of surface moisture.Results showed that potential evapotranspiration presents an increasing trend in annual and seasons in future 85 years under RCP4.5 scenario.The characteristics of increase rate of potential evapotranspiration is summer﹥spring﹥autumn﹥winter.The surface moisture index in annual,summer,autumn and winter show a downward trend except for spring.There are one and two periodic oscillations for annual and seasons,respectively.55 years is the first major period for annual,summer,autumn and winter while 56 years is the first major period for spring.

关 键 词：潜在蒸散量 地表湿润度 变化趋势 空间格局 贵州省 

分 类 号：P942[天文地球—自然地理学]