“特朗普冲击”下的亚太区域经济合作：挑战与应对  

Regional Economic Cooperation in Asia-Pacific under the “Trump Shocks”:Challenges and China’s Corresponding Strategies

作　　者：蒋芳菲 JIANG Fang-fei

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院研究生院

出　　处：《经济论坛》2019年第11期52-58,共7页Economic Forum

基　　金：中国社会科学院亚洲研究中心课题项目（YYZX2019002）

摘　　要：受"特朗普冲击"影响,亚太区域经济合作正日益面临发展方向和路径选择上的"双重不确定性",地区经济发展正处于结构变化和发展方式调整的重构期。本文认为东亚经济发展模式对美国等域外发达国家的脆弱性依赖和区域经济合作自身制度建设过程的自主性不足是导致亚太区域经济合作在"特朗普冲击"下不确定性骤增、一体化和制度化进程出现严重滞缓的根源。中国的迅速崛起、特朗普政府亚太战略调整,以及域内主要成员之间的互信不足和利益偏好变化是导致区域合作困境重重的直接原因。在新的国际形势下,既需认识到推动亚太区域合作的重要性和必要性,也需认识到其长期性与艰巨性。鉴于中国已成为重塑区域经济结构、引领亚太区域经济合作的关键性力量,进一步深化国内经济体制改革,开发和开放国内市场,增强中外互信,厘清"亚太"与"印太"合作之间的关系,增强"一带一路"建设与既有区域合作机制之间的互补性,不仅关乎中国自身发展,对促进亚太区域经济合作和世界经济增长也十分重要。Affected by the"Trump Shocks",Asia-Pacific regional economic cooperation has been increasingly facing"double uncertainties"in development orientation and path selection,and the regional economic development is in the period of structural changes and adjustment of development mode.This article holds that the vulnerability of the East Asian economic development model to the United States and other developed countries outside the region and the lack of autonomy in the process of institutional construction of regional economic cooperation are the root causes for the sudden increase of uncertainties and serious delay in the process of regional integration and institutionalization under the"Trump Shocks".While,the rapid rise of China,the US’s strategic adjustment under the Trump administration,the lack of mutual trust and the changing interest preferences among the major economies all attributed to the predicaments in regional cooperation.In this light,we should recognize not only the importance and necessity of promoting regional cooperation in Asia-Pacific,but also its long-term and arduous nature.Given that China has become one of the main force in reshaping regional economic structure and leading regional cooperation,taking measures such as further deepening the reform of domestic economic system,further developing and opening domestic market,enhancing mutual trust between China and foreign countries,clarifying the relationship between"Asia-Pacific"and"Indo-Pacific",as well as enhancing complementarity between the Belt and Road Initiative and other regional cooperation mechanisms,are not only of much importance to China’s own development,but also crucial in promoting regional economic cooperation and world economic growth.

关 键 词：亚太区域经济合作 “特朗普冲击” “印太”概念 东亚经济发展模式 中国崛起 “一带一路” 

分 类 号：F114.46[经济管理—国际贸易]