丹江口库区水资源可再生能力评价研究  

Study on evaluation of water resources renewability in Danjiangkou Reservoir Area

作　　者：贾会方 JIA Huifang(Hydrologic and Water Resources Survey Bureau of Shijiazhuang,Shijiazhuang 050051,China)

机构地区：[1]河北省石家庄水文水资源勘测局

出　　处：《水科学与工程技术》2020年第1期17-20,共4页Water Sciences and Engineering Technology

摘　　要：通过建立水资源可再生能力评价指标体系,用灰色关联法和指数评价法对丹江口库区近10年的水资源可再生能力变化进行分析,并用灰色预测模型对未来3年进行预测。结果表明:2008~2017年间丹江口库区的水资源可再生能力处于波动变化,但总体趋势是从Ⅳ级向Ⅰ级变化;利用指数评价法计算丹江口库区水资源可再生能力,10年内增加了0.308,年均增速0.031;预测结果显示,未来3年的水资源可再生能力分别是0.614,0.666,0.723,表明丹江口库区水资源的可再生能力日益增强、持续向好。This paper analyzes the water resources renewability of the Danjiangkou reservoir area in the past 10 years by establishing the water resources renewable capacity evaluation index system,and uses the gray correlation method and the index evaluation method to predict the future three years.The results show that:from 2008 to 2017,the water resources renewable capacity of the Danjiangkou reservoir area is fluctuating,but the overall trend is from grade IV to grade I;using the index evaluation method to calculate the water resource renewability of the Danjiangkou reservoir area,increasing within 10 years 0.308,the average annual growth rate of 0.031;prediction results show that the renewable energy capacity of the next three years is 0.614,0.666,0.723,respectively,indicating that the renewable capacity of Danjiangkou reservoir area is increasing and continuing to improve.

关 键 词：丹江口 水资源可再生能力 评价指标 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源]