基于SIR模型分析不同强度防控手段在当前武汉市新型冠状病毒(2019-nCoV)感染的肺炎疫情中的作用  

Analysis of the role of different intensity prevention and control measures in the current epidemic of novel coronavirus(2019-nCoV) infected pneumonia in Wuhan based on SIR model

作　　者：武文韬 李达宁 李莉[1] 冯敖梓 徐安定[3] 吕军 Wen-Tao WU;Da-Ning LI;Li LI;Ao-Zi FENG;An-Ding XU;Jun LYU(Department of Clinical Research,The First Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University,Guangzhou 510630,China;School of Public Health,Xi'An Jiaotong University,Xi’an 710061,China;Department of Neurology,The First Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University,Guangzhou 510630,China)

机构地区：[1]暨南大学附属第一医院临床研究部,广州510630 [2]西安交通大学公共卫生学院,西安710061 [3]暨南大学附属第一医院神经内科,广州510630

出　　处：《医学新知》2020年第1期78-82,共5页New Medicine

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目(16BGL183)

摘　　要：新型冠状病毒疫情爆发后,武汉市确诊和疑似病例的人数迅速上升。在目前未发现有良好治疗措施的情况下,如何迅速采取有效的防控措施仍是当务之急。本研究基于官方数据和传染病动力学SIR模型对采取不同强度防控措施的结局进行预测并为制定新一轮防控策略提供建议。The number of confirmed and suspected cases in Wuhan has risen rapidly since the outbreak of the new coronavirus.In the absence of good treatment measures,prompt and effective prevention and control measures are still the top priority.Based on official data and SIR model of infectious disease dynamics,this study predicted the outcome of prevention and control measures with different intensity and provided Suggestions for formulating a new prevention and control strategy.

关 键 词：新型冠状病毒 COVID-19 肺炎 SIR模型 预测模型 预防策略 

分 类 号：R563.1[医药卫生—呼吸系统] R181.3[医药卫生—内科学]