可变折旧率的另一种估计方法——基于中国各省份资本折旧的极大似然估计  

Another Estimation Method for the Variable Capital Depreciation Rate: Based on the Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Chinese Province Capital Depreciation

作　　者：陈昌兵[1] CHEN Changbing(Institute of Economics,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院经济研究所

出　　处：《经济研究》2020年第1期49-64,共16页Economic Research Journal

摘　　要：本文利用增长率法和计量方法估计1990年起始的我国省份固定资本存量,然后估计由资本折旧构建的可变折旧率计量模型。为了估计更准确,本文采用迭代法估计可变折旧率。由计量模型参数估计值和相关数据得到我国省份可变折旧率,同时测算得到中国各省份1990—2015年间资本体现式技术进步。为了检验小样本极大似然估计的可靠性,采用蒙特卡罗法检验得到可变折旧率模型参数估计是无偏可信的。由初始期资本存量、投资估计可变折旧率,测算得到1990—2015年间我国各省份资本存量介于现有文献测算的资本存量之间。本文采用完整的方法估计我国省份可变折旧率,且可变折旧率中包含了因技术进步引起的经济折旧。At present,the literature on depreciation rates in China mainly considers the national depreciation rate,which is often used to replace provincial(municipal)rates and is fixed across years.We construct a method to estimate the variable depreciation rates of provinces(municipalities)in China using observable provincial(municipal)depreciation and considering the economic depreciation caused by technological progress.In addition,the capital stock of provinces(municipalities)in China during 1990—2015 is calculated.We use a different method than the literature to estimate the variable depreciation rates of provinces(municipalities)in China.The relationship between capital stock and the level of capital embodied technological progress is first obtained.Then,a mathematical model of depreciation rate,growth rate,and capital embodied technological progress is constructed using the AK production function,and the variable depreciation rate function is obtained.The variable depreciation rate model with capital depreciation as the explained variable is constructed using the perpetual inventory and matrix operation methods,and the variable depreciation rate is estimated by the maximum likelihood method.We set 1990 as the initial year of the capital stock of provinces(municipalities)mainly for ease of measurement.The values for the capital stock of provinces(municipalities)in 1990 as calculated by various scholars are quite different,so it is difficult to choose a calculated value,but their mean value can be used as a reference value.Based on the calculated capital stock,investment,and capital depreciation of provinces(municipalities)in 1990,the maximum likelihood estimation of the variable depreciation rate model is carried out.To estimate the variable depreciation rate more accurately,we use an iterative method to estimate the variable depreciation rate model.After one simple and three complex models are estimated,the estimated parameter values of such a complex model tend to converge smoothly.The variable depreciation rate

关 键 词：可变资本折旧率 极大似然法 迭代估计法 资本体现式技术进步 经济折旧 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F127