基于城乡居民消费行为分析视角的扩大内需研究  

Research on the Expansion of Domestic Demand by Analyzing Consumption Behavior of Urban and Rural Residents

作　　者：张恒龙[1,2] 姚其林 ZHANG Heng-long;YAO Qi-lin

机构地区：[1]上海大学经济学院,上海200444 [2]中国社会科学院-上海市人民政府上海研究院合作处,上海200444

出　　处：《求是学刊》2020年第1期62-74,F0003,共14页Seeking Truth

摘　　要：当前我国经济已由高速增长阶段转向高质量发展阶段,且面临着国际市场需求低迷,贸易保护主义抬头等挑战。在此背景下,迫切需要加快经济发展方式的转变,实现内需的扩大和提高,其中扩大消费需求尤为重要。通过分析改革开放以来我国消费率的变动情况,发现我国最终消费率的下降主要发生在2000年以后,且主要是由居民消费率下降导致的,鉴于我国城乡二元结构的国情特征,选取农村居民与城镇居民2000年以后的收入与消费支出数据,将影响城乡居民消费的消费能力与消费意愿两个重要因素进行了量化分析,在此基础上运用ELES模型分析了城乡居民的消费结构,研究发现,与消费能力相比,消费意愿在较多年份制约了城乡居民消费支出的增长,且对城镇居民的制约程度大于农村居民;城乡居民居住类消费支出的增加对其他类消费的增长产生了一定的挤出影响;居住、交通通信、其他用品及服务类未来有可能成为城乡居民共同的重要消费增长点。At present,China’s economy has shifted from a stage of rapid growth to that of high-quality devel⁃opment,facing with challenges such as sluggish in international market demand and trade protectionism ris⁃ing.In this context,it is urgent to accelerate the transformation of the economic development mode so as to pro⁃mote the expansion and improvement of domestic demand,among which expanding consumer demand is par⁃ticularly important.By analyzing the changes of consumption rate in China since reform and opening up,the article finds that the decline of China’s final consumption rate mainly took place in 2000,due to the decline of consumption ratio.Given the characteristics of urban-rural dual structure in China,the article chose the data of income and consumption expenditure from rural and urban residents since 2000 was and took quantitative analysis of consumption ability and willingness that affect their consumption.In addition,ELES model was used to analyze the consumption structure of urban and rural residents.The study finds that compared with spending power,consumption willingness restricts the growth of consumption expenditure of urban and rural residents in many years,and the restriction degree of urban residents is greater than that of rural residents.The increase of residential consumption expenditure of urban and rural residents has a certain crowding out ef⁃fect on the growth of other consumption.Housing,transportation and communication,other supplies and servic⁃es may become important consumption growth points for both urban and rural residents in future.

关 键 词：内需 消费 城乡居民 ELES模型 

分 类 号：F126.2[经济管理—世界经济]