湘江株洲水文站近60年降雨特性分析  

Research on Characteristics of Rainfall at Zhuzhou Hydrological Station in Xiangjiang River in Recent 60 Years

作　　者：杨芳[1] 杨盼 卢路[1] 熊昱 YANG Fang;YANG Pan;LU Lu;XIONG Yu(Yangtze River Water Resources Protection Institute,Wuhan 430051,China;College of Hydraulic&Environmental Engineering,China Three Gorges University,Yichang 443000,China)

机构地区：[1]长江水资源保护科学研究所,湖北武汉430051 [2]三峡大学水利与环境学院,湖北宜昌443000

出　　处：《人民珠江》2020年第2期92-97,共6页Pearl River

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2017YFC0405303)

摘　　要：降雨是湘江水资源量的主要来源,其变化趋势对水资源的开发利用和合理配置有着重要意义。利用1955-2016年湘江株洲水文站降雨序列资料,采用数理统计、线性趋势、5 a滑动平均法、Mann-Kendall突变检验、滑动t突变检验和小波分析法分析区域降雨特性。得出以下结论:近60 a来湘江株洲水文站降雨年内分配不均,但有规律,多年年均降雨量主要呈现丰枯交替变化过程,总体呈上升趋势显著。多年平均降雨天数虽呈波动变化,但总体趋势表现平稳。多年年均降雨量和降雨天数在14 a和20 a左右时间尺度上的周期振荡最强。2016年后短时间内降雨量和降雨天数会相对减少,随后又会增加。研究结果可为湘江流域水资源变化特征研究、水资源规划管理、防涝抗旱、农牧林业生产提供数据支持。Rainfall is the main source of water resources in Xiangjiang River,so the research on its changing trend is of great significance to the development,utilization and rational allocation of water resources.Based on the rainfall series data of Zhuzhou Hydrological Station in Xiangjiang River from 1955 to 2016,this paper analyzes the regional rainfall characteristics by the mathematical statistics,linear trend,5 year moving average method,Mann-Kendall test,sliding t test and wavelet analysis.The following conclusions are drawn:(1)In the past 60 years,the annual distribution of rainfall at Zhuzhou Hydrological Station in Xiangjiang River was uneven,but in regularity.The annual average rainfall of many years mainly presents the alternating process of high and low,with significant increase trend.(2)Although the average number of rainy days in many years fluctuates,the overall trend is stable.(3)The periodic oscillation of annual average rainfall and annual average rainy days is the strongest in the time scale of about 14 year and 20 year.In a short period of time after 2016,the amount of rainfall and the number of rainy days will decrease relatively,and then increase,which can provide data support for the study of water resources change characteristics,water resources planning and management,waterlogging and drought control,agriculture,animal husbandry and forestry production in Xiangjiang River Basin.

关 键 词：降雨 特性 MANN-KENDALL检验 小波分析 湘江株洲水文站 

分 类 号：TV125[水利工程—水文学及水资源]