基于ADCIRC模式的宁波沿海风暴潮预报  

Forecasting of Storm Surge in Ningbo Coastal Waters Based on ADCIRC Mode

作　　者：李欢 周天逸 张丽芬 LI Huan;ZHOU Tianyi;ZHANG Lifen(Shanghai Water Engineering Design and Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Shanghai 200061,China;Shanghai Municipal Engineering Design Institute(Group)Co.,Ltd.,Shanghai 200092,China)

机构地区：[1]上海市水利工程设计研究院有限公司,上海200061 [2]上海市政工程设计研究总院(集团)有限公司,上海200092

出　　处：《人民珠江》2020年第2期98-103,123,共7页Pearl River

摘　　要：宁波海域岛屿众多、海岸线曲折,每年受风暴潮灾害影响严重,但前人针对此海域风暴潮预报研究较少。基于ADCIRC模式,以宁波近海为研究区域,采用大范围网格为区域精细化网格提供边界条件的方式,建立了高分辨率的天文潮、风暴潮耦合数值预报模型,对该地区的风暴潮预报模式进行了探索研究。对8场典型台风模拟计算所得的潮位数据结果与实测数据进行了比对,相对误差平均值小于5%,表明了此模型计算精度较高,适用于宁波近海地区的台风风暴潮数值模拟预报,能为宁波近海海堤预报预警提供技术参数。There are many islands in the Ningbo coastal waters and the coastline twists and turns.It is seriously affected by storm surges in this area every year,however,less study has been do to forecast the storm surges in this area.Taking Ningbo coastal waters as the research area and based on the ADCIRC mode,this paper establishes a high-resolution astronomical tide and storm surge coupling value forecasting mode by providing boundary conditions through the large-scale grids for regional refined grids to study the storm surge forecasting mode in this area,and comparesthe tide level obtained from the simulation of 8 typical typhoons with the measured level,with the average relative error of less than 5%.The result shows that the mode has high calculation accuracy and is suitable for numerical simulation forecasting of typhoon storm surge in Ningbo coastal waters,which can provide technical parameters for forecasting and warning in Ningbo coastal waters.

关 键 词：风暴潮 ADCIRC 精细化 耦合模型 预报系统 宁波 

分 类 号：P457.8[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]