城镇化对碳排放的影响研究——以广东省为例  

Impact of Urbanization on Carbon Dioxide Emissions:Taking Guangdong as an Example

作　　者：陶良虎[1] 李星 张群也 TAO Lianghu;LI Xing;ZHANG Qunye(School of Economics,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan Hubei 430070,China;School of Economics,Shenzhen University,Shenzhen Guangdong 518060,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学经济学院,湖北武汉430070 [2]深圳大学经济学院,广东深圳518060

出　　处：《生态经济》2020年第2期84-89,共6页Ecological Economy

基　　金：湖北省社会科学基金重大项目“湖北长江经济带绿色发展工程化、项目化研究”(HBSK2018DJZ010)

摘　　要：城镇化在促进工业化、增加碳排放量的同时,也可通过提高资源利用效率降低碳排放量。城镇化与碳排放量的关系十分密切,但并没有明确的促进或抑制作用。为研究二者关系,论文以广东省为例,从产业城镇化、人口城镇化、能源消费结构、土地城镇化、实际使用外商直接投资占比、研究与试验发展占比六个方面研究了其对广东省碳排放量的影响。选取1996—2015年的数据建立模型,并对模型进行相关检验及修正。结果显示,广东省能源消费结构与产业城镇化对碳排放具有显著的正相关关系,其中产业城镇化这一因素影响更大。最后结合实证分析和定性分析,提出相关的政策建议。Urbanization can promote industrialization and thus increase carbon emissions,but it can also improve the efficiency of resource utilization and then reduce carbon emissions.Urbanization is closely related to carbon emissions,but there is no clear promoting or inhibiting effect.In order to study the relationship between the two,this paper takes Guangdong Province as an example to study its impact on the carbon emissions of Guangdong Province from six aspects:industrial urbanization,population urbanization,energy consumption structure,land urbanization,proportion of actual foreign direct investment,proportion of research and experimental development.The data from 1996 to 2015 were selected to establish a regression model,and relevant tests were conducted on the model.The final results show that:There is a significant positive correlation between the energy consumption structure of Guangdong Province and the industrial urbanization on carbon emissions,among which the industrial urbanization has a greater impact.Finally,combining with empirical analysis and qualitative analysis,we put forward relevant policy recommendations.

关 键 词：城镇化 碳排放量 时间序列 最小二乘法 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]