从城市看发展:中国正处在迈向基本现代化的关键期  

Looking at Development from the Perspective of City:China is in a Critical Period of Moving towards Basic Modernization

作　　者：倪鹏飞[1] 徐海东[2] 李超[1] NI Pengfei;XU Haidong;LI Chao(National Academy of Economic Strategy,CASS,10028;Graduate School,CASS,102488)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院财经战略研究院,北京市100028 [2]中国社会科学院研究生院,北京市102488

出　　处：《财经智库》2020年第1期72-97,142,143,共28页Financial Minds

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“多中心群网化中国城市新体系的决定机制研究”(71774170);中国社会科学院创新工程项目“‘十四五’及未来15年中国城市化与房地产趋势研究”。

摘　　要：本文从城市发展的视角观察发现:中国正处在迈向基本现代化的关键期。具体从城市社会发展看,中国进入城市风险的多发期;从城市经济发展看,中国处在迈向高收入国家的跨坎期;从区域关系看,中国进入城市区域荣衰的博弈期;从城乡关系看,中国进入城乡一体的转折期;从城市空间看,中国处在城市形态演变的定型期。为确保跨越中等收入陷阱,稳步实现基本现代化,需要以繁荣和升级城市产业化解各种风险,以市场取向改革促进动力转化和转型扩散,以“东中一体”应对“南北分化”,以“村市化”推动“三农”融入“三城”,优化公共产品的布局,创造共赢的城市空间形态。From the perspective of urban development,this paper fi nds that China is in the critical period of basic modernization.Specifi cally,from the perspective of urban social development,China has entered a period of multiple urban risks;from the perspective of urban economic development,China is in a period of crossing the border towards a high-income country;from the perspective of regional relations,China has entered a game period of urban regional prosperity and decline;from the perspective of urban-rural relations,China has entered a turning period of urban-rural integration;from the perspective of urban space,China is in a period of fi nalization of urban morphology evolution.In order to surmount the middle-income trap and realize the basic modernization steadily,we need to resolve all kinds of risks by prospering and upgrading the urban industry,promote the power transformation and its diffusion by market-oriented reform,cope with the“north-south differentiation”by“integrating the east with the middle”,promote the integration of“three rural issues”into the“three cities”by“village urbanization”,optimize the layout of public products and create a win-win urban spatial form.

关 键 词：城市发展 区域发展 城乡融合 基本现代化 

分 类 号：R58[医药卫生—内分泌] P25[医药卫生—内科学]