“非典”和新冠肺炎疫情对我国客货运输的影响比较与分析  

Comparison and Analysis of Influence of SARS and COVID-19 on Passenger and Freight Transportation in China

作　　者：周一鸣[1] 姜彩良[1] Zhou Yi-ming;Jiang Cai-liang(China Academy of Transportation Sciences,Beijing100029,China)

机构地区：[1]交通运输部科学研究院

出　　处：《交通运输研究》2020年第1期24-32,共9页Transport Research

摘　　要：为使运输行业有效做好新冠肺炎疫情防控工作并积极应对后续可能出现的行业风险,在剖析2003年“非典”疫情对各种交通运输方式客货运输流量产生影响的基础上,比较了新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情与“非典”疫情的共性与不同,分析了新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情将对我国客货运输发展产生的影响,预测新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情将在短期内对铁路客运、公路客货运、民航客货运造成较大负面影响;对铁路货运、航运影响较小;对快递、电商业发展产生积极影响。基于各运输方式客货运量所受影响预测,指出未来一段时期交通运输行业应关注的重点:要进一步健全行业突发危机管理机制和行业重大风险防范机制;针对此次疫情涉及面较广的特点,应关注农村交通运输防控工作,保障疫情期间“三农”健康有序发展。In order to effectively control and prevent Corona Virus Disease 2019(COVID-19),and positively respond to the potential risk in transportation industry,By analyzing the influence of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome(SARS)on passenger and freight transportation volume of different modes in 2003,the similarities and differences between SARS and COVID-19 was compared,and the influence of COVID-19 on development of passenger and freight transportation in China was analyzed.It predicts that COVID-19 will have serious negative influence on railway passenger transport,road passenger and freight transport,and civil aviation passenger and freight transport in short term;COVID-19 will have little influence on railway freight and shipping;COVID-19 will have a positive influence on the development of express delivery and e-commerce.Then,some key points on transportation in the future were proposed:An emergency crisis management mechanism and major risk prevention mechanism of the industry should be set up;thinking of the wide spread of COVID-19,the prevention and control of epidemic in rural transportation should be paid attention to,the healthy and orderly development of"agriculture,rural areas and farmers"should be ensured during the epidemic.

关 键 词：新型冠状病毒肺炎 非典 疫情 客货运输 流量预测 

分 类 号：U-9[交通运输工程]