“一带一路”倡议实施的产业结构转型升级效应研究——基于中国285个城市PSM+DID的检验  

Research on the Transformation and Upgrading Effect of Industrial Structure Implemented by the “Belt and Road” Initiative——Based on the test of PSM + DID in 285 cities in China

作　　者：王巧[1] 佘硕[1] Wang Qiao;She Shuo

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学

出　　处：《经济问题探索》2020年第2期132-143,共12页Inquiry Into Economic Issues

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“中国与东盟反恐合作治理机制研究”(18BZZ046);国家自然科学基金青年面上项目“多目标分类下政府科技悬赏策略及其优化研究”(71974203)

摘　　要：“一带一路”倡议为实现经济可持续增长提供了重要发展机遇,是新常态下中国产业结构升级的重要推力。本文旨在探讨“一带一路”倡议影响中国产业结构转型升级的净效应,在构建“一带一路”倡议影响中国产业结构转型升级的作用机理基础上,基于中国285个地级市2003年-2016年的面板数据,通过倾向性得分匹配(PSM)+双重差分法(DID)对“一带一路”倡议的产业结构转型升级净效应进行了评估。实证结果表明:“一带一路”倡议显著促进了沿线城市产业结构合理化水平的提升,但并未促进产业结构高度化水平的提升,其对中国整体产业结构转型升级的驱动效应不明显;进一步分析表明其产业结构转型升级效应存在区域异质性,“边际递减效率”在“一带一路”倡议实施过程中发挥作用。本文据此提出了相关对策建议,以期为“一带一路”倡议的后期部署提供一定的参考。The One Belt One Road initiative provides an important development opportunity for achieving sustainable economic growth and is an important thrust for China's industrial structure upgrading under the new normal.This paper aims to explore the net effect of the One Belt One Road initiative affecting the transformation and upgrading of China's industrial structure.Based on the mechanism of the One Belt One Road initiative affecting the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure,we use the panel data of 285 prefecture-level cities in China,taking the preference score matching and difference method,evaluating the net effect of industrial transformation and upgrading of the One Belt One Road initiative.The empirical results show that the One Belt One Road initiative has significantly promoted the improvement of the rationalization of industrial structure,but it has not related the upgrading of the industrial structure.Its driving effect on the transformation and upgrading of China's overall industrial structure is not obvious;Further more,the initiative's industrial structure transformation and upgrading effect has shown certain regional differences:The western cities can obtain more policy benefits from the implementation of the One Belt One Road initiative,and the driving effect of industrial structure transformation and upgrading is obvious,while the central and eastern cities have no obvious driving effect,and marginal diminishing efficiency plays a role in the implementation of the One Belt One Road initiative.Based on the result,the paper puts forward relevant countermeasures and suggestions,to provide some reference for the later deployment of the One Belt One Road initiative.

关 键 词：“一带一路”倡议 产业结构高级化 产业结构合理化 PSM+DID 

分 类 号：F062.9[经济管理—政治经济学]