能源约束视角下中国经济可持续发展路径探究  

Research on the Path of China’s Sustainable Economic Development from the Perspective of Energy Constraints

作　　者：潘苏楠 李北伟[1] 聂洪光[2,3] Pan Sunan;Li Beiwei;Nie Hongguang

机构地区：[1]吉林大学,长春130022 [2]长春理工大学,长春130022 [3]中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院,北京100190

出　　处：《经济问题探索》2020年第2期158-169,共12页Inquiry Into Economic Issues

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目“城市居民能源消费影响因素及低碳转型引导机制研究”(71503026)，主持人:聂洪光

摘　　要：能源约束趋紧背景下要实现中国经济的可持续发展,关键在于进一步升级产业结构和优化能源结构,而只有依靠绿色技术创新,才能突破资源环境的约束,才能推动产业向价值链中高端跃进。基于可持续发展理念,通过分析绿色创新、产业升级、能源可持续利用以及经济可持续发展的内涵与机理,运用全排列多边形综合图示法,构建中国2000-2017年绿色创新、产业升级、能源消费和经济发展的可持续指数。在此基础上,采用VAR模型对其之间的动态效应关系进行实证研究,并通过障碍度分析,挖掘研究期内各系统可持续发展的关键制约因素。研究表明:(1)中国绿色创新、产业升级、能源消费和经济发展的可持续指数均呈现稳定上升态势,但绿色创新的可持续指数相对较低。(2)绿色创新、产业升级、能源可持续利用以及经济可持续发展之间存在长期均衡关系,产业升级与能源可持续利用二者互为格兰杰因果关系;绿色创新是能源可持续利用的单向格兰杰原因,对其预测方差起着重要作用;产业升级是经济可持续发展的单向格兰杰原因,对其预测方差起着重要作用;经济可持续发展是绿色创新的单向格兰杰原因,对其预测方差的贡献率非常大。(3)构建以绿色创新为源动力,保障能源可持续利用,支撑产业可持续升级,进而推动经济可持续发展,并以经济可持续发展反哺激发绿色创新活力的可持续发展生态圈。(4)研究期内,技术市场成交额、专利申请量以及R&D经费支出是绿色创新的主要制约因素,而能源消费结构不合理是能源可持续利用的主要障碍。新常态下,亟待通过产业结构的优化升级来拉动经济增长,进而以经济增长促进经济的可持续发展。In order to realize the sustainable development of China's economy under the background of tightening energy constraints,the key lies in further upgrading the industrial structure and optimizing the energy structure.Only relying on green technology innovation can we break through the constraints of resources and environment and promote the industry to leap to the middle and high end of the value chain.Based on the concept of sustainable development,through the analysis of the connotation and mechanism of green innovation,industrial upgrading,sustainable energy utilization and sustainable economic development,the sustainable index of green innovation,industrial upgrading,energy consumption and economic development in China from 2000 to 2017 is constructed by using the comprehensive graphic method of full arrangement polygon.On this basis,the VAR model is used to carry out empirical research on the dynamic effect relationship between them,and through the analysis of obstacle degree,the key constraints of sustainable development of each system during the research period are excavated.The results show that:(1)The sustainability index of green innovation,industrial upgrading,energy consumption and economic development all show a steady upward trend,but the sustainability index of green innovation is relatively low.(2)There is a long-term equilibrium relationship among green innovation,industrial upgrading,sustainable energy use and sustainable economic development.Industrial upgrading and sustainable energy use are Granger causality to each other.Green innovation is the one-way Granger cause of sustainable energy use and plays an important role in its prediction difference.Industrial upgrading is the one-way Granger origin of sustainable economic development and plays an important role in its prediction difference;sustainable economic development is the one-way Granger cause of green innovation,which contributes a lot to its prediction difference.(3)Constructing a sustainable development ecological circle with green i

关 键 词：能源约束 绿色创新 全排列多边形综合图示法 VAR模型 经济可持续发展 

分 类 号：F015[经济管理—政治经济学]