广东农民工住房变动趋势分析——基于Oaxaca-Blinder与Fairlie方法的分解  

Rural Migrant Workers’ Housing Attainment Trends and Its Determinants in Guangdong: An Analysis by Oaxaca-Blinder and Fairlie Model

作　　者：王子成 刘佳纯 邓江年[2] WANG Zi-cheng;LIU Jia-chun;DENG Jiang-nian(School of Public Administration and Emergency Management,Jinan University,Guangzhou 510632;Institute of Economics,Guangdong Academy of Social Sciences,Guangzhou 510632)

机构地区：[1]暨南大学公共管理学院/应急管理学院,广东广州510632 [2]广东省社会科学院,广东广州510635

出　　处：《南方人口》2020年第1期69-80,共12页South China Population

基　　金：国家社会科学项目“外出农民工城市居住实现模式与住房保障路径研究(17BJY044)”;广东省哲学社会科学规划项目“城市居住抉择、住房保障与广东农业转移人口市民化：机理与实证研究(GD14XGL38)”;广州市哲学社会科学规划项目“广州农民工市民化的城市融入机制研究：住房保障视角(15G16)”

摘　　要：本文利用2013-2017年广东省外来人口动态监测调查数据,分析农民工在住房产权形式、住房支出、住房支出相对负担的变动趋势,并通过Oaxaca-Blinder与Fairlie均值分解模型,探讨广东农民工发生住房变动的主要原因。研究结果发现:广东省农民工住房自有化水平有所提升,但社会租房仍是主要居住形式;住房支出成本逐渐攀升,而住房相对负担(住房支出占总支出比例)有所下降。广东农民工住房变动差异分解结果显示,可观测变量特征是造成2013年-2017年广东省农民工住房自有率、住房支出变动的主要原因,进一步分解结果则表明,在可解释的禀赋差异中,家庭经济收入和人力资本等是广东农民工住房自有率提升、住房支出持续增加的主要决定因素与关键变量,同时农民工住房变动趋势变动也在很大程度上受到户籍等制度改革及住房调控政策影响,与全国相比,不可观测的制度差异对广东农民工住房趋势变动的贡献度趋于平稳。This paper analyzes the changes in the rural migrant workers’housing ownership,housing expenditure and the relative burden of housing expenditure and the determinants of the changes in 2013-2017 in Guangdong Province by Oaxaca-Blinder and Fairlie mean decomposition model.The findings show that though the rural immigrant workers have a increasing proportion of housing ownership in Guangdong,the majority of them still lives in rented housing,and though the housing expenditure keep increasing,the relative burden of housing expenditure is reducing.The results of the differences decomposition analysis of the housing changes shows that the characteristics of observable variables are the main causes for the change of housing ownership and housing expenditure in 2013-2017 and the further decomposition show that the interpretable endowments differences such as family economic income and human capital are the main determinants and key variables for the increase of housing ownership and affordability of the housing expenditure.At the same time,the changes of migrant workers’housing are also greatly affected by institutional reforms in household registration and housing control policy and the influence of unobservable institutional differences on the changes of the rural migrant worker’s housing in Guangdong tends to be stable compared with the whole country.

关 键 词：农民工住房 变动趋势 Oaxaca-Blinder模型 Fairlie模型 

分 类 号：C92-05[社会学—人口学]