延迟退休年龄政策的就业冲击效应——基于OECD国家数据的实证检验  

The Shock of Delaying Retirement Policy to The Employment:An Empirical Test Based on OECD Countries’ Data

作　　者：曾霞[1] 姚万军[2] ZENG Xia;YAO Wan-jun(Honors College,Tianjin Foreign Studies University,Tianjin 300204,China;School of Economics,Nankai University,Tianjin 300071,China)

机构地区：[1]天津外国语大学求索荣誉学院,天津300204 [2]南开大学经济学院,天津300071

出　　处：《西北人口》2020年第2期27-38,共12页Northwest Population Journal

基　　金：国家社科基金“台湾地区人口老龄化下消费结构的变动研究”（18BRK033）;天津市教委科研计划项目“天津市家庭婚姻幸福指数及其影响因素的实证分析”（2019SK080）

摘　　要：延迟退休年龄政策是外生性变化,对劳动力就业会产生政策冲击。OECD国家的经验显示,延迟退休年龄政策对失业率的冲击效应为0.6~0.7个百分点。其中,对青年和老年劳动力的冲击效应尤为显著,分别为1.3~2.2和0.4~1.2个百分点。此外,冲击效应在性别间显示出显著的差异。本文认为在实施延迟退休年龄政策时,不仅要关注延迟退休年龄政策对失业率的长期影响,更应该重视其短期冲击效应;不仅要关注对青年劳动力就业的影响,还应该重视对老年劳动力就业的冲击。特别是处在新旧法定退休年龄交替阶段的老年劳动力,其就业和生活状况尤需关注。Delaying retirement is an exogenous change that has a policy impact on the employment.The experience of OECD countries shows that the impact of the delaying retirement policy on the unemployment rate is between 0.6~0.7%.Among them,the impact on the youth and the elderly labor force is particularly significant,at 1.3~2.2%and 0.4~1.2%respectively.In addition,the impact also shows significant differences between genders.The author believes that in implementing the policy of delaying retirement,it is necessary to pay attention not only to the long-term impact on the unemployment rate,but also to the short-term impact;not only the impact on the employment of the young labor force,but also the impact on the employment of the elderly labor force.In particular,it needs to pay attention to the employment and living conditions of the elderly labor force at the age of the old and new statutory retirement ages.

关 键 词：延迟退休年龄 失业率 政策冲击 倍差法 

分 类 号：F249.2[经济管理—劳动经济]