我国不同种减税政策的宏观调控效应测度:基于DSGE模型的对比研究  

Measurement of Macro-control Effects of Different Tax Reduction Policies in China: A Comparative Study Based on DSGE Model

作　　者：徐宁 丁一兵[1] XU Ning;DING Yibing

机构地区：[1]吉林大学经济学院

出　　处：《暨南学报（哲学社会科学版）》2020年第1期19-30,共12页Jinan Journal(Philosophy and Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金专项重大项目“‘一带一路’建设过程中推进金融创新和金融保障体系研究”(批准号:17VDL012);中国博士后科学基金特别项目“资产价格错位与货币政策规则:解域模拟与损失计量”(批准号:2019T120229)

摘　　要：有关财政政策宏观调控效应的研究一直是宏观经济研究领域内的经典议题。然而以往研究多是关注财政总量变动的逆周期调控作用,但鲜有文献比较不同税收政策调控效果的系统性差异。特别是在当前结构性减税降费的大背景下,不同财政工具多维宏观调控效应的差异亟待阐明。有鉴于此,本文构建含有多种财政政策规则的DSGE模型系统地比较了政府支出、消费税、资本税和劳动税的多维宏观调控功能,结果发现:(1)在平抑产出波动方面,财政总量调控依旧是最有效的手段,表明财政政策的稳定器作用显著;(2)相比而言,消费税能够直接作用于物价水平,更有助于控制通货膨胀;(3)最后就维稳资产价格而言,资本税具有定向调节,局部着力等优势,因此更适合于维持金融稳定。由此可见,定向着力的结构性财政调整不失为新常态下财政体制改革的一种有益尝试。The discussion on the macro-effect of fiscal policy has always been a classic topic in macro-economic research.However,most previous studies mainly focus on the counter cycle regulation of fiscal aggregate changes,and few literature works compare the systematic differences among the effects of different tax policies.Especially under the background of tax reduction and fees reduction,the differences of multi-dimensional macro-control effects among different fiscal tools need to be clarified.Therefore,this paper employs a DSGE model with multiple fiscal policy rules to systematically compare the multi-dimensional macro-control functions of government expenditure,consumption tax,capital tax,and labor tax.The paper comes to conclusions as follows.Firstly,when facing economic fluctuations,fiscal aggregate control is still the most effective measure,showing a prominent stabilizer function.Secondly,when it comes to curbing inflation,consumption tax can act directly on price levels,so it is the optimal choice.Finally,when it comes to controlling asset price,the capital tax has the advantages of directional regulation as well as local adjustment,so it is more suitable to maintain financial stability.This indicates that the targeted structural fiscal adjustment is a beneficial attempt in fiscal system reform under the“new normal”economy.

关 键 词：财政支出 消费税 资本税 劳动税 DSGE模型 

分 类 号：F82.4[经济管理—财政学]