行业生命周期与产能过剩  

Industry Life Cycle and Excess Capacity

作　　者：徐齐利 XU Qi-li

机构地区：[1]江西财经大学经济学院

出　　处：《产业经济评论》2020年第1期33-62,共30页Review of Industrial Economics

基　　金：北京市社科基金重点项目（18GLA003）;北京市优秀人才青年拔尖团队项目（2017000026833TD0）;北京市教科委科研项目（SM201910038003）;江西财经大学习近平经济思想研究院资助项目

摘　　要：为理解在行业的生命周期内产能过剩的形成和转化机理,针对中国特殊的行业准入和退出制度,本文构造一个涵盖预期与现实互动、产能与产出互动、在位企业与新进企业互动的行业生命周期分析框架:行业幼稚期,特许经营;行业成长期,进入博弈;行业成熟期,古诺博弈;行业衰退期,联合经营。理论分析揭示:行业产出周期与行业生命周期“同频同步”,行业产能周期与行业生命周期“同频异步”,产能更新相对产出更新反应更迟缓、力度更激烈,此三者共同作用是形成行业在其生命周期内交替性重复出现产能过剩、产能适宜、产能短缺现象的周期性机理。该理论发现对于行业产能过剩的实践启示是,政府应在充分认识行业所处生命周期的阶段性质基础上,做到“有所为,有所不为”:行业在其上升期发生产能过剩,政府“无为”胜“有为”;行业在其下行期发生产能过剩,政府“有为”胜“无为”。In view of the special industry access and exit system in China,to understand how the industry's excess capacity forms and evolves in its life cycle,this paper constructs an industry life cycle analysis framework that covers the interaction between expectation and reality,between capacity and output,and between incumbent and new entrants:industry infancy,franchise;industry growth,market entry game;industry maturity,Cournot game;industry recession,joint operation.The theoretical analysis reveals that:the industry output cycle and the industry life cycle are"synchronized at the same frequency",the industry capacity cycle and the industry life cycle are"synchronized but asynchronous",and the response of capacity updating is slower and more intense than that of output updating;these three mechanisms together form the periodic fluctuation of excess capacity,suitable capacity and shortage capacity in the industry alternately and repeatedly during its life cycle.The theory for the practical enlightenment of industry excess capacity,the government should fully understand the stage nature of the industry's life cycle,and achieve"do something,do nothing":In the rising period,the government"inaction"is better than"promising",if the industry has excess capacity;in the downward period,the government"promising"is better than"inaction",if the industry has excess capacity.

关 键 词：产能过剩 行业生命周期 行业产能周期 产能建设周期 产能利用周期 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]