基于三阶段DEA模型的福建省能源碳排放效率与影响因素研究  

Research on the Energy Emission Efficiency and Influencing Factors of Fujian Province Based on Three—Phase DEA Model

作　　者：杜翼 马静静 项康利[1] Du Yi;Ma Jingjing;Xiang Kangli(Science and Technology Research Institute,State Grid Fujian Electric Power Co.,Ltd.Fuzhou Fujian 350012;Business School of Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou Henan 450000;Center for Energy,Environment&Economic Research,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou Henan 450000)

机构地区：[1]国网福建省电力有限公司经济技术研究院,福建福州350012 [2]郑州大学商学院,河南郑州450000 [3]郑州大学能源—环境—经济研究中心,河南郑州450000

出　　处：《创新科技》2019年第10期8-19,共12页Innovation science and technology

基　　金：国家电网福建公司“计及能源效率和生态环境约束的福建省电力发展优化模型研究”(JYYFW2018JT06003)

摘　　要：在促进经济社会发展的同时要减少CO2排放量,关键在于如何提高CO2排放效率。本文首先以1994—2017年福建省24个经济单元为研究对象,在全要素框架下利用三阶段DEA模型实证测算了福建省各年份的能源CO2排放效率;其次为进一步探究影响福建省碳排放效率的因素,利用OLS回归模型对其因素的影响程度进行研究。研究发现,受环境变量和随机误差影响,1994—2017年碳排放效率值被高估,可能是受调整前比较有利的外部环境和相对较好的运气水平所致;2009、2012—2017年效率值被低估,主要是因为纯技术效率值的增加,对福建省技术条件优越性的充分利用。而OLS回归结果表明,三产产值比重的增加以及提高政府影响力是促进碳排放效率的关键因素;所有权属性是抑制碳排放效率的决定因素;人均GDP和人口密度均为抑制碳排放效率的因素,但影响效果不显著。根据以上分析结果,有针对性地提出相关政策建议来提高福建省能源碳排放效率。The key to reducing CO2 emissions while promoting economic and social development lies in how to improve CO2 emission efficiency.Firstly,this paper studied the 24 economic units of Fujian Province from 1994 to 2017,and used the three—phase DEA model to empirically cal⁃culate the energy CO2 emission efficiency of each year in Fujian Province under the total factor framework.Secondly,it further explored the impact degree of the factors affecting carbon emis⁃sion efficiency in Fujian Province by using the OLS regression model.The study found that the carbon emission efficiency value was overestimated in 1994—2017 due to environmental vari⁃ables and random errors,which may be resulted from the favorable external environment and rel⁃atively good luck before adjustment;in 2009,2012—2017,the efficiency value was underesti⁃mated,mainly because of the increase in the efficiency of pure technical efficiency and the full utilization of the superiority of technical conditions in Fujian Province.The OLS regression re⁃sults showed that the increase of the proportion of the output value of the three production and the improvement of the government’s influence were the key factors to promote the efficiency of carbon emission;the ownership attribute was the determinant of the carbon emission efficiency;the per capita GDP and the population density were both the factors inhibiting the efficiency of carbon emission,but the effect was not significant.Based on the above analysis results,relevant policy recommendations were proposed to improve the energy carbon emission efficiency of Fuji⁃an Province.

关 键 词：三阶段DEA 碳排放效率 能源消费 OLS回归 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]