短期外债影响我国经济增长的实证研究——基于短期外债绝对量和相对量视角  

An Empirical Study of Short-term Foreign Debt Affecting China’s Economic Growth

作　　者：刘霞[1] 何鹏 LIU Xia;He Peng(Business School of Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001,China)

机构地区：[1]郑州大学商学院

出　　处：《郑州航空工业管理学院学报》2020年第1期59-67,共9页Journal of Zhengzhou University of Aeronautics

基　　金：2017年度河南省政府决策招标课题(2017B152);2018年度河南省青年骨干教师计划(2018GGJS015)

摘　　要：为使外债更好地服务于我国社会和经济发展的需要,加强外债管理,降低外债风险十分必要。文章选取我国1985—2018年的时间序列数据,采用单位根检验和Johansen协整检验,基于短期外债绝对量和相对量视角进行回归分析,研究发现1985—2018年间,短期外债绝对量的增加会在一定程度上对我国GDP增长有着正向影响;然而短期外债相对量的增加则会对经济发展产生一定的抑制作用,其中短期外债占外债总余额的比率产生的负向影响较大。根据实证结果,我国外债管理需关注以下几个方面:优化借入外债的使用方向、防范短期外债可能带来的风险、合理控制外债的整体规模及加速建设稳健的金融体系。Foreign debt has always played an important role in China's economic development,but the risk of foreign debt can not be ignored.In order to better serve the needs of China's social and economic development,it is very important to strengthen the management of foreign debt and reduce the risk of foreign debt.This paper selects time series data of China from 1985 to 2018,adopts unit root test and Johansen co-integration test,and conducts regression analysis based on absolute and relative quantity perspectives of short-term foreign debt.It is found that the increase of absolute short-term foreign debt has a positive impact on China's GDP growth to some extent from 1985 to 2018.However,the increase of the relative amount of short-term foreign debt will have a certain restraining effect on economic development,and the ratio of short-term foreign debt to the total balance of foreign debt has a greater negative impact.According to the empirical results,the following feasible Suggestions are put forward for China's foreign debt management:optimizing the use direction of borrowed foreign debt,preventing the possible risks of short-term foreign debt,reasonably controlling the overall size of foreign debt and accelerating the construction of a sound financial system.

关 键 词：短期外债 经济发展 时间序列 

分 类 号：F562[经济管理—产业经济]