基于种群竞争模型的出租市场对比分析  

Traditional Confrontation with the Net,Smoke in the Rental Market

作　　者：王心如 车东宇 李新靓 吴宇航 WANG Xin-ru;CHE Dong-yu;LI Xin-liang;WU Yu-hang(Yisheng College,North China University of Science and Technology,Tangshan Hebei 063210;College of Math,North China University of Science and Technology,Tangshan Hebei 063210;Innovation laboratory of mathematical modeling,north China university of science and technology,Tangshan Hebei 063210;Hebei key laboratory of data science and application,Tangshan Hebei 063210)

机构地区：[1]华北理工大学以升创新教育基地,河北唐山063210 [2]华北理工大学理学院,河北唐山063210 [3]华北理工大学数学建模创新实验室,河北唐山063210 [4]河北省数据科学与应用重点实验室,河北唐山063210

出　　处：《新一代信息技术》2018年第3期34-40,47,共8页New Generation of Information Technology

基　　金：国家自然基金资助项目(No.11601151)。

摘　　要：出租车一直是便捷交通的不二选择,近年来,网约车伴随“互联网+”的潮流,短时间内迅猛发展,冲击了出租车市场,与传统出租车在出租出行市场中呈现出显著的博弈关系。为分析两者运营状况,并预测未来三年网约车与传统出租车市场份额的变化情况首先建立模糊综合评价模型,运用调查所得2014-2017年网约车与传统出租各指标的数据,得到评估结果:网约车迅猛发展,但略有回落;传统出租车总体占有优势,但发展滞后,改革后情况缓和。再建立种群竞争模型,进一步分析未来运营状况:网约车的竞争潜力更大,在2019年左右或将超越传统出租车的地位。最后应用灰色预测模型并进行精度检验,在精度合理范围内,基于2014-2017年数据预测未来三年网约车的市场份额分别为:0.39138,0.39611,0.40091;传统出租车未来三年市场份额为0.60057,0.59601,0.59147。Traditional taxi together with the net about car rental market competition,to analyze the operating condition,and to predict the future three years nets about the car and the change of traditional taxi market share,first to establish a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model,using the net income of 2014-2017 about the car and the index data of traditional rental,evaluation results are obtained:the network rapid development about the car,but down slightly;The traditional taxi generally has the advantage,but the development lags behind,and the situation is eased after the reform.A population competition model is established to further analyze the future operating situation:the competitive potential of online ride-hailing is greater,which may surpass the status of traditional taxi in around 2019.Finally,the gray prediction model was applied and the accuracy was tested.In a reasonable range of accuracy,the market shares of online ride-hailing in the next three years were predicted to be 0.39138,0.39611 and 0.40091 based on the data of 2014-2017.In the next three years,the market share of traditional taxi is 0.60057,0.59601 and 0.59147.

关 键 词：模糊综合评价模型 种群的竞争模型 灰色预测模型 

分 类 号：F42[经济管理—产业经济]