基于面板数据的湖南省地市州旅游经济效应分异研究  

A Panel Data Research on the Differentiation of Tourism Economic Effects in Hunan Province

作　　者：龙祖坤[1] 洪毓嘉 LONG Zukun;HONG Yujia(Business School of Xiangtan University,Xiangtan 411105,China)

机构地区：[1]湘潭大学商学院

出　　处：《邵阳学院学报（社会科学版）》2020年第1期47-54,共8页Journal of Shaoyang University:Social Science Edition

摘　　要：根据湖南省14个地市州2006-2017年的旅游总收入、地区生产总值的数据构建面板数据,通过单位根检验、协整分析、格兰杰因果关系检验和面板数据回归等方法,分析了湖南省旅游经济效应分异特征。结果显示,湖南省旅游总收入与经济增长的互动关系良好,旅游总收入每增加1%会促进地区生产总值同向增加0. 62%。从各个地市州来分析,衡阳市旅游总收入与经济增长不存在长期协整关系,在13个通过协整检验的城市中,在10%的显著性水平上,邵阳、益阳、怀化、湘西四州市的旅游发展与经济增长互为格兰杰因果,长沙、常德、郴州、永州、娄底的经济发展是旅游发展的格兰杰原因,湘潭市的旅游发展是经济增长的格兰杰原因。长沙市旅游发展对经济的促进作用最大,娄底市最小,湖南省内旅游经济效应存在明显分异。According to the data of total tourism revenue and regional GDP of 14 cities and prefectures in Hunan Province from 2006 to 2017,the panel data was constructed and analyzed by unit root test,cointegration analysis,Granger causality test and panel data regression. The characteristics of tourism economic effects in Hunan Province are different. The results show that the interaction between total tourism revenue and economic growth in Hunan Province is good,and every 1% increase in domestic tourism income will increase the GDP in the same direction by 0. 62%. From the analysis of various cities and states,there is no long-term cointegration relationship between total tourism revenue and economic growth in Hengyang City. In 13 cities that passed the cointegration test,at the level of 10% significance,Shaoyang,Yiyang,Huaihua,and Xiangxi,the tourism development and economic growth are in a Granger causality. The economic development of Changsha,Changde,Ganzhou,Yongzhou and Loudi is the Granger cause of tourism development.However,the tourism development of Xiangtan City is the Granger cause of economic growth. The tourism development has the greatest effect on the economy in Changsha,while the smallest in Loudi. The tourism economic effects in Hunan Province are obviously different.

关 键 词：湖南省 旅游经济效应 面板数据 格兰杰因果检验 

分 类 号：F592.7[经济管理—旅游管理]