基于条件云的时变故障率模型及其在可靠性评估中的应用  被引量:3

Time-varying Failure Rate Model Based on Cloud Theory and Its Application in Reliability Assessment

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作  者:赵书强[1] 王皓[1] 张辉[1] 王枭枭 刘金山 ZHAO Shuqiang;WANG Hao;ZHANG Hui;WANG Xiaoxiao;LIU Jinshan(School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering,North China Electric Power University,Baoding 071003,China;State Grid Qinghai Electric Power Company,Sining 810000,China)

机构地区:[1]华北电力大学电气与电子工程学院,河北保定071003 [2]国网青海省电力公司,青海西宁810000

出  处:《华北电力大学学报(自然科学版)》2020年第1期1-8,16,共9页Journal of North China Electric Power University:Natural Science Edition

基  金:国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFB0902200);国家电网公司科技项目(5228001700CW)

摘  要:电力系统通常采用常数故障率模型进行可靠性评估,常数故障率模型虽然结构简单、计算量小,但忽略了天气因素的影响,无法反映系统可靠性的真实水平。针对常数故障率模型的缺陷和可靠性统计数据的不足,提出了一种基于条件云的时变故障率模型。首先定义了适当的隶属度函数,使用X条件云模型完成风光出力到天气条件的转化。然后使用半降尖Γ云模型,对天气条件与天气影响因子之间的确定性关系进行模糊化,使用Y条件云模型完成天气条件到天气影响因子的转化。在条件云模型的基础上,根据云模型的不确定性推理规则,由t时刻风光出力推测对应时刻的天气影响因子,对采用威布尔分布模拟的时变故障率模型进行修正。最后结合比利时瓦垄地区风电场和光伏电站出力数据进行云模型构建和发电系统可靠性评估。该模型能够更好地模拟系统运行的实际状况,提高可靠性评估的准确性。Constant failure rate model, which is often applied in evaluating the reliability of power system, features simple structure and small computation, but cannot accurately reflect system reliability due to neglect of weather factors. Therefore, this paper proposed a time-varying fault rate model based on conditional cloud. Firstly, this paper defined the appropriate membership function, and completed the transformation from PV-wind power to weather conditions by the x-condition cloud model. Next this paper fuzzified the deterministic relationship between weather conditions and weather impact factors by the Cusp Gamma cloud model. Based on conditional cloud models, this paper deduced the weather impact factors at corresponding time from the PV-wind power output and modified the time-varying failure rate model with Weibull distribution according to the uncertainty reasoning rules. Finally, this paper constructed the cloud model and evaluated the reliability of power generation system based on the output data of wind farm and photovoltaic power station in Walong area of Belgium. The proposed model performs well in simulating the actual operation of the system, thereof accurately evaluating system reliability.

关 键 词:云模型 时变故障率模型 气象模型 可靠性评估 

分 类 号:TM732[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]

 

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