SEASONAL PREDICTIONS FOR SPRING AND AUTUMN SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHERN CHINA BY THE NCEP CFSV2  

作　　者：LI Chan-zhu YANG Song LI Chun-hui LAOHALERTCHAI Charoon 李婵珠;杨崧;李春晖;刘俊荷(School of Atmospheric Sciences,Sun Yat-sen University,Zhuhai,Guangdong 519082 China;Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou 510275 China;Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai),Zhuhai,Guangdong 519000 China;Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology/Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction,Guangzhou 510641 China;Thai Meteorological Department,Bangna,Bangkok 10260 Thailand)

机构地区：[1]School of Atmospheric Sciences,Sun Yat-sen University,Zhuhai,Guangdong 519082 China [2]Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou 510275 China [3]Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai),Zhuhai,Guangdong 519000 China [4]Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology/Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction,Guangzhou 510641 China [5]Thai Meteorological Department,Bangna,Bangkok 10260 Thailand

出　　处：《Journal of Tropical Meteorology》2019年第4期448-461,共14页热带气象学报（英文版）

基　　金：National Key Research and Development Program of China(2016YFA0602703,2017YFC1502306);National Natural Science Foundation of China Project(41575082,41661144019,41675019,41690123,and 41690120);the LASW State Key Laboratory Special Fund(2016LASW-B01)

摘　　要：In this study, we investigate the variations of spring and autumn air temperatures in southern China(SC) and associated atmospheric circulation patterns. During the boreal spring, the SC air temperature is mainly influenced by tropical sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTAs). On the one hand, the El Ni?o SSTA pattern may induce a stronger-than-normal western Pacific subtropical high, which leads to warming in SC. On the other hand, the warm SSTAs in the tropical Indian Ocean may trigger anomalous Rossby wave trains, which propagate northeastward and result in anomalously high temperature in SC. During the boreal autumn, however, the SC temperature is more likely to be affected by the mid-latitude atmospheric circulation, such as the wave trains forced by the North Atlantic SSTAs.The NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2(CFSv2) is able to capture the climatology of SC air temperatures during both spring and autumn. For interannual variation, the CFSv2 shows a good skill for predicting the SC temperature in spring, due to the model’s good performance in capturing the associated atmospheric circulation anomalies as responses to tropical SSTAs, in spite of the overestimated relationship with the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO). However,the model has a poor skill for predicting the SC temperature in autumn, primarily due to the unrealistic prediction of its relationship with the ENSO.In this study, we investigate the variations of spring and autumn air temperatures in southern China(SC) and associated atmospheric circulation patterns. During the boreal spring, the SC air temperature is mainly influenced by tropical sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTAs). On the one hand, the El Nino SSTA pattern may induce a stronger-than-normal western Pacific subtropical high, which leads to warming in SC. On the other hand, the warm SSTAs in the tropical Indian Ocean may trigger anomalous Rossby wave trains, which propagate northeastward and result in anomalously high temperature in SC. During the boreal autumn, however, the SC temperature is more likely to be affected by the mid-latitude atmospheric circulation, such as the wave trains forced by the North Atlantic SSTAs.The NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2(CFSv2) is able to capture the climatology of SC air temperatures during both spring and autumn. For interannual variation, the CFSv2 shows a good skill for predicting the SC temperature in spring, due to the model's good performance in capturing the associated atmospheric circulation anomalies as responses to tropical SSTAs, in spite of the overestimated relationship with the El Nio-Southern Oscillation(ENSO). However,the model has a poor skill for predicting the SC temperature in autumn, primarily due to the unrealistic prediction of its relationship with the ENSO.

关 键 词：southern China temperature NCEP CFSv2 PREDICTION SPRING AUTUMN 

分 类 号：P4223[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P461.2