源-荷协整关系与电价时间序列协整模型  

Co-integration model between source-load co-integration relationship and electricity price time series

作　　者：方绍凤 周任军[1] 张武军 李娟 彭院院 石亮缘 FANG Shaofeng;ZHOU Renjun;ZHANG Wujun;LI Juan;PENG Yuanyuan;SHI Liangyuan(Hunan Province Collaborative Innovation Center of Clean Energy and Smart Grid,Changsha University of Science and Technology,Changsha 410004,China;China Energy Engineering Group Hunan Electric Power Design Institute Co.,Ltd.,Changsha 410007,China;Guangzhou Power Supply Bureau Co.,Ltd.,Guangzhou 510620,China)

机构地区：[1]长沙理工大学湖南省清洁能源与智能电网协同创新中心,湖南长沙410004 [2]中国能源建设集团湖南省电力设计院有限公司,湖南长沙410007 [3]广州供电局有限公司,广东广州510620

出　　处：《电力自动化设备》2020年第2期169-174,共6页Electric Power Automation Equipment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71331001,91746118);湖南省自然科学基金资助项目(2019JJ40302)~~

摘　　要：针对电源出力曲线与需求侧负荷曲线因功率实时平衡而完全一致的特点,证明二者存在数学意义上的协整关系。在新能源高渗透率系统的源-网-荷-储协调运行中,将源网、荷储功率曲线分别合计为源、荷曲线,提出源-网-荷-储协调调度的源-荷协整关系和理论依据。为了实现协整并消纳新能源,提出源-荷与电价时间序列协整的经济技术模型,该模型以常规机组出力波动率最小为目标,以不平衡电价为约束。算例结果表明:源-荷曲线时间序列与电价之间协整后得到的常规机组出力波动率较小,因此变量之间的协整关系可以充分发挥终端用户的资源配置潜力,激励需求侧资源负荷曲线的变化,最大化地消纳新能源。Aiming at the characteristic that the power source output curve and the load curve at demand side are completely consistent due to real-time power balance,their mathematical co-integration relationship is verified. In the coordinated operation of source-grid-load-storage in power system integrated with renewable energy of high permeability,the power curves of source-grid and load-storage are respectively combined into source and load curves,and the source-load co-integration relationship and theoretical basis of source-grid-load-storage coordinated dispatch are proposed. In order to realize co-integration and absorb renewable energy,an economic and technical model of co-integration between source-load and electricity price time series is proposed,which takes the minimum fluctuation rate of conventional unit output as its objective,and the unbalanced electricity price as its constraint. The case results show that small fluctuation rate of conventional unit output is obtained after co-integration between source-load and electricity price.Therefore,the co-integration relationship between variables can fully exploit the resource allocation potential of terminal users,stimulate the change of load curve of demand side,and maximize the consumption of renewable energy.

关 键 词：协整检验 协整关系 协调调度 源-荷协整 新能源消纳 

分 类 号：TM761[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]