基于战争成本—收益计算的国防支出决定模型  

Decision-making models of defense expenditure based on the cost-benefit calculation of war

作　　者：严剑峰[1] 马翠廉 YAN Jianfeng;MA Cuilian(Center for Defense Economics,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics,Shanghai 200433,China)

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学国防经济研究中心

出　　处：《国防科技》2019年第6期70-77,共8页National Defense Technology

摘　　要：国防支出是国防建设的资源投入和基本保障。如何确定国防支出的比例或规模既是国家决策者关心的重大现实问题,也是国防经济学研究的最基本问题之一。与以往研究不同,文章创造性地从战争成本-收益计算的视角出发,构建了一个基于本国武器装备杀伤系数的决定国防支出比例的基础模型;并在此基础上,通过逐步引入抵抗外敌入侵的自毁系数、敌国武器装备对本国进攻与防守能力的抵消作用、敌国武器装备使本国武器装备数量的失效作用、敌国攻击本国的获胜概率等变量对模型进行扩展;最后通过跨期模型加以动态化,说明在长期均衡状态下国防支出的变化趋势。通过这些模型的构建和求解,我们得出:一国国防支出的比例(或规模)主要取决于该国武器装备的杀伤系数、自毁系数、敌国国防支出、敌国获胜概率、本国的国民财富、经济增长率和武器装备折旧率等因素。这为在实践中安排好一国的国防支出提供了十分有益的参考。Defense expenditure is resource input and basic supply to defense construction.How to determine the scale of defense expenditure is not only a paramount realistic problem that one country’s decision-maker concern,about but also one of the most basic problems for defense economics.The difference from other existing works is that the paper creatively builds a decision-making model for defense expenditure from a perspective of cost-benefit calculation of war.The basic model is based on the attack effectiveness of a country’s weaponry.Then,we develop the basic model by taking other determinant factors into consideration,such as self-destructive effectiveness of this country’s armament in resisting foreign enemy invasion,offset effect caused by foreign enemy’s weapons,the partial invalidation of national weaponry and the success probability of invasion.Finally,to show its varying tendency of defense expenditure in a long-term equilibrium state,we expand the model dynamically through analyzing the scale of defense expenditure under a two-period situation.Through constructing and resolving these models,we come to some very interesting conclusions that the sale of a country’s defense expenditure mainly depends on this country’s weapon attack and self-destructive effectiveness,foreign enemy’s defense expenditure,enemy’s winning probability,the country’s national wealth and its growth rate of its economy,the depreciation rate of this country’s armament.These conclusions offer some useful references for government in making defense expenditure arrangement.

关 键 词：国防支出 战争的成本-收益计算 杀伤系数 自毁系数 

分 类 号：E0-054[军事—军事理论]