我国信息通信技术创新扩散效应及预测实证研究  

Empirical research on the diffusion effect of ICT innovation diffusion and prediction in China

作　　者：胡文玉[1,2] 王文举 HU Wenyu;WANG Wenju(Capital University of Economics and Business,Beijing 100070,China;Sciresearch Consulting Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 102200,China;Beijing Wuzi University,Beijing 101100,China)

机构地区：[1]首都经济贸易大学,北京100070 [2]北京中智博咨询有限公司,北京102200 [3]北京物资学院,北京101100

出　　处：《电信科学》2020年第1期66-76,共11页Telecommunications Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(No.14ZDA072)~~

摘　　要：结合我国信息通信技术(ICT)的特点,应用Bass扩展模型对ICT创新扩散效应进行了实证研究。结果表明遗传算法曲线拟合估计效果更好。此外,应用非累计采用者Bass模型从技术演进、业务类型、区域分布及省市等维度对ICT创新扩散效果进行实证分析,得出创新扩散随着ICT的演进创新效应驱动显著,对3G/4G、宽带互联网、数字电视及其融合业务更为明显的结论。最后,采用非累计Bass模型运用遗传算法对固话、移动、宽带和广播电视未来5年的用户规模进行了预测。Based on the characteristics of information and communication technology(ICT)in China,an empirical study was made on the diffusion effect of ICT innovation using Bass extension model.The results show that the curve fitting estimation effect of genetic algorithm was remarkable.In addition,non-cumulative adopter model was used to empirically analyze the diffusion effect of ICT innovation from the aspects of technology evolution,business,region and provinces.It was concluded that innovation diffusion was significantly driven by innovation effect along with the evolution of ICT,especially 3 G/4 G,broadband Internet,digital TV and their convergent business.Finally,the non-cumulative Bass model using genetic algorithm were used to predict the user size of fixed-line,mobile,broadband,radio and television in the next five years.

关 键 词：信息通信技术 创新扩散 非累计采用者Bass模型 遗传算法 预测 

分 类 号：F623[经济管理—产业经济]