中国耕地资源利用的碳排放时空特征及脱钩效应研究  

Study on Spatio-Temporal Characteristics and Decoupling Effect of Carbon Emission from Cultivated Land Resource Utilization in China

作　　者：丁宝根 杨树旺[1] 赵玉[2] 易松[2] DING Baogen;YANG Shuwang;ZHAO Yu;YI Song(School of Economics and Management,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430074,China;School of Economics and Management,East China University of Technology,Nanchang 330013,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学经济管理学院,湖北武汉430074 [2]东华理工大学经济与管理学院,江西南昌330013

出　　处：《中国土地科学》2019年第12期45-54,共10页China Land Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“新时代我国农业高质量发展的测度与实现路径研究”（19CJY040）;国家自然科学基金项目“价格波动：粮农市场预期、种植行为响应与政策优化”（71503038）;江西省自然科学基金项目“江西省粮农环境友好型农业技术采纳行为及支持政策优化”（20181BAA208054）

摘　　要：研究目的:揭示中国耕地资源利用的碳排放时空分异规律及其与农业经济增长之间的脱钩关系,以期为中国耕地资源低碳化利用政策的制定和推行提供参考。研究方法:IPCC碳排系数法,TAPIO脱钩分析法。研究结果:(1)中国耕地资源利用的碳排放整体上呈现增长趋势,但2010年后增速趋于下降并于2016年开始转入负增长,省际差异不断扩大的同时区域间差异趋于缩小;(2)中国耕地资源利用的碳排放强度总体上处于下降态势,省际和区域间碳排放强度的差异总体上趋于缩小;(3)中国耕地资源利用的不同碳排放源的碳排放量及增速呈现不同的时序波动特征,同时存在明显的地域差异性,其中,化肥是最主要碳排放源;(4)中国2000—2012年耕地资源利用的碳排放与农业经济增长之间呈现以“弱脱钩”为主,但2013—2017年不同省域的脱钩类型及脱钩程度趋于差异化。研究结论:中国耕地资源利用碳排放的时空分异性显著,且与农业经济增长之间不同阶段和不同省域呈现不同脱钩类型,需突出减排重点、实施差异化策略及注重绿色发展等多途径推进耕地资源低碳化利用,提高政策的精准性。The purposes of paper are to reveal spatio-temporal differentiation rule of carbon emission from the utilization of cultivated land resource in China and its decoupling relationship with agricultural economic growth,and to provide better ideas and directions for guaranteeing the implementation of the policy of low-carbon utilization of cultivated land resource.The research methods include IPCC carbon emission coefficient method and Tapio decoupling analysis.The research results show that:1)the carbon emission of cultivated land resource utilization in China exhibits an overall growth trend,but the growth rate tends to decline after 2010 and began to turn into negative growth in 2016.The provincial differences continue to expand while regional differences tend to shrink.2)The carbon emission intensity of cultivated land resource utilization is generally declining,and the differences between provinces and regions tend to shrink as a whole.3)The carbon emission and growth rates between different carbon sources of cultivated land resource utilization in China present different time series fluctuation characteristics,and exist obvious regional differences,among which chemical fertilizer is the major source of carbon emission.4)The carbon emission of cultivated land resource utilization in China and agricultural economic growth is mainly“weakly decoupled”from 2000 to 2012,however,the types and degrees of decoupling in different provinces tend to differentiate from 2013 to 2017.In conclusion,the spatio-temporal differentiation of carbon emission from the utilization of cultivated land resource in China is significant,showing different decoupling types in different years or different provinces,consistent with agricultural economic growth.Therefore,the effective measures with the focus of emission reduction,and some other ways to facilitate green development should be taken to promote the low-carbon utilization of cultivated land resource and to improve the accuracy of policies.

关 键 词：耕地资源利用 碳排放 时空特征 脱钩效应 

分 类 号：F301.24[经济管理—产业经济]