灾害救援中基于民众心理感知的应急物资多阶段分配问题研究  

Study on multi-stage distribution of emergency materials in disaster rescue based on people’s psychological perception

作　　者：朱建明 王瑞 ZHU Jianming;WANG Rui(School of Engineering Sciences,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院大学工程科学学院

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2020年第2期5-10,共6页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(91324012)

摘　　要：为有效解决在保证高效完成救援任务的同时考虑受灾民众行为,进而提高灾民对救援处置效果的满意度问题,结合行为运筹学相关理论和不公平厌恶理论,提出民众对于应急物资到达时间的风险感知度量模型,以及民众对于所得到的应急物资数量的公平满意度度量模型,构建基于灾民心理感知的应急物资多阶段调度模型,解决应急物资到达时间风险感知、物资分发数量公平满意度等多目标下的调配决策问题;设计基于蚁群优化思想的求解算法。研究结果表明:通过实例分析对比验证了模型在提升灾区民众对于应急物资分发策略满意度方面的有效性。In order to solve the problem effectively,the rescue task should be completed efficiently at the same time.Considering the behaviors of the affected people,so as to improve the rescue and disposal of the victims satisfaction with results,The satisfaction degree of people in the disaster area is the important basis for the evaluation of disaster rescue effect.Combined with the relevant theories of behavioral operations research and the theory of inequity aversion,a measurement model of risk perception for the people on the arrival time of emergency materials was proposed,and a measurement model of equity satisfaction degree for the people on the obtained quantity of emergency materials was also put forward.A multi-stage distribution model of emergency materials based on the people’s psychological perception was established,and the problems of distribution decision-making with multi-objectives such as the risk perception on the arrival time of emergency materials and the equity satisfaction degree on the distribution quantity of emergency materials were solved.A solving algorithm based on the idea of ant colony optimization was designed,and the effectiveness of the model for improving the satisfaction degree of people in the disaster area on the distribution strategies of emergency materials was verified through the analysis and comparison of actual example.

关 键 词：应急物资分配 多阶段决策 风险感知 不公平厌恶 应急管理 

分 类 号：X913[环境科学与工程—安全科学]