云南物流发展与经济增长因果关系研究  

Research on the Relationship between Logistics Development and Economic Growth in Yunnan

作　　者：谢瀚毅 黄洁[1] SHEAH Han Yit;HUANG Jie(School of Management and Economics,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming 650093,China)

机构地区：[1]昆明理工大学管理与经济学院

出　　处：《物流科技》2020年第3期122-128,共7页Logistics Sci-Tech

摘　　要：云南省得益于国家政策的支持以及地理优势,使得经济与物流发展得到前所未有的契机,有望成为中国西部与东南亚之间的区域物流中心。文章分别以物流的成效、供给和需求代理物流业发展指标进行实证研究,运用协整检验和误差修正模型分析云南物流发展与经济增长之间长期和短期的关系,再以格兰杰因果检验分析两者之间存在的因果关系,并得出云南的经济增长对物流发展存在的促进作用。文章先以定性分析云南物流发展与经济增长的现状,再结合定量实证分析的结论,针对实质性问题提出建议。With benefited from national policies and geographical advantages,the logistics development and economic development of Yunnan province get an unprecedented development opportunity,which is expected to become a regional logistics center between Western China and Southeast Asia.This paper analyses the long-term relationship,short-term relationship and causality between logistics development and economic growth by using the logistics supply,logistics demand and logistics effectiveness as logistics development indicators in cointegration test,error correction model and Granger causality test.It is concluded that the development of logistics in Yunnan province will promote economic growth in the long run,and economic growth will also significantly promote the development of transportation network.This paper first analyses the current situations of logistics development and economic growth in Yunnan province,then combined this qualitative analysis with the conclusions of quantitative empirical analysis,and based on the substantive issues to makes suggestions.

关 键 词：物流发展 经济增长 误差修正模型 协整检验 格兰杰因果 

分 类 号：F259.27[经济管理—国民经济]