基于信息-物理-社会系统融合和群体机器学习的弱中心化微元网:理论研究与关键科学问题分析  

The weakly-centralized Web-of-Cells based on cyber-physical-social systems integration and group machine learning: Theoretical investigations and key scientific issues analysis

作　　者：余涛[1,2] 程乐峰 张孝顺 YU Tao;CHENG LeFeng;ZHANG XiaoShun(School of Electric Power,South China University of Technology,Guangzhou 510641,China;Guangdong Key Laboratory of Clean Energy Technology,Guangzhou 510641,China;College of Engineering,Shantou University,Shantou 515063,China)

机构地区：[1]华南理工大学电力学院,广州510641 [2]广东省绿色能源技术重点实验室,广州510641 [3]汕头大学工学院,汕头515063

出　　处：《中国科学：技术科学》2019年第12期1541-1569,共29页Scientia Sinica(Technologica)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(批准号:51777078,51477055);中国南方电网有限责任公司重点科技项目(编号:GZKJQQ00000419);中国南方电网有限责任公司科技项目(编号:GDKJXM20180576)资助

摘　　要：以研发分布式可再生电源高渗透率环境下的智能调度系统为最终目标,系统地开展基于信息-物理-社会融合系统(CPSS)和群体机器学习的微元网调度与控制关键技术的研究.针对"弱中心化"的微元网所具备的自组织演化特性、高度独立性、高效协同性和自主学习性等技术特征和工程需要,采用复杂网络理论、群体机器学习、演化博弈论及基于CPSS的平行系统等先进理论工具,重点攻关如下科学问题:如何依赖信息有限、可控性弱、容量微小、广泛分布的大量群体单元来实现一类复杂系统的整体最优调度与控制决策.基于此,分别研究了基于CPSS的微元网自组织耦合网络建模方法、微元网自组织演化稳定性分析及其稳定控制系统、独立网元的高度自治式群体智能决策方法及微元网间多元协同演化博弈和群体智能决策理论,力争在复杂网络博弈论与群体机器学习交叉点上寻求创新性突破,实现复杂系统环境下群体知识涌现和群体智能决策水平的大幅提升.基于此,最后探讨了微元网CPSS软件平台的研制及工程应用实践,并对其未来的发展和面临的技术挑战分别进行了展望和分析,以期能在未来智能电网示范中进行工程应用.The key technology concerning the dispatch and control of the cyber-physical-social systems(CPSS) integration and group machine learning(ML) based Web-of-Cells(WoC) is systematically investigated, aiming to develop an intelligent dispatching system that has a high penetration of distributed generations(DG). Based on practical engineering demands and the weakly-centralized WoC, which is characterized by self-organized co-evolution, high independence, high-efficiency synergy, and autonomous learning, a variety of advanced theoretical tools such as complex network theory, group ML, evolutionary game theory, and CPSS-based parallel system theory have been adopted to address the following key issue: How can we achieve overall optimal dispatching and control decisionmaking in a class of complex systems relying on a large number of group cells with characteristics of limited information, weak controllability, small capacity, and wide distribution? Starting from this, four basic scientific issues are discussed: 1) a modeling method for a self-organized coupled network of the CPSS integration-based WoC;2) a stability analysis and stability control system of the self-organized evolution of the WoC;3) a highly autonomous group intelligent decision(GID) method of an independent cell;4) multi-cell synergetic evolutionary game and GID theory. Hence, an innovative breakthrough on the intersection of complex network game theory and group ML is expected to be obtained, contributing to the emergence of group knowledge in complex circumstances and a significant improvement in the level of GID. Lastly, based on the theoretical investigation in this paper,explorations on the development of the CPSS platform for the WoC as well as its engineering practice in application are conducted.Furthermore, the in-depth development of the WoC, as well as its anticipated technical challenges, are prospected and analyzed with the hope of applying it on practical smart distribution grid demonstration projects in the future.

关 键 词：微元网 信息-物理-社会融合系统 分散协调控制 复杂网络 演化博弈论 群体机器学习 人工智能 

分 类 号：TP181[自动化与计算机技术—控制理论与控制工程] TK018[自动化与计算机技术—控制科学与工程]