“走出去”与“引进来”：银行业对外开放的风险效应  

Research on the Impact of Banking Opening on Financial Risk

作　　者：马理[1] 何云 Ma Li;He Yun

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济与管理学院

出　　处：《财经科学》2020年第1期13-28,共16页Finance & Economics

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“经济新常态下中国金融开放与金融安全研究”（17JZD015）;湖北省教育厅哲学社会科学研究重大项目“十八大以来党中央治国理政新理念新思想新战略研究——促进供给侧改革的货币政策调控”（18ZD002）;国家自科基金国际合作项目“法、金融与经济增长之再考察——中国的变革挑战与英国等国的经验”（71661137003）

摘　　要：银行业的对外开放是把双刃剑,一方面能够引导商业银行与国际接轨、拓宽业务范围与领域,但另一方面也可能产生金融风险、对金融稳定造成不利影响。因此,在对外开放过程中扬长避短,选择合适的开放"度"非常重要,相关研究可以为我国金融业双向开放过程中预防和控制金融风险提供经验支持和决策参考。本文基于2004年第1季度-2018年第4季度的银行业对外开放和金融风险等宏观数据,构建了系统性金融风险压力指数和不同金融市场风险压力指数,采用TVAR模型检验了银行业对外开放是否存在"度",以及在"度"的两侧金融风险的变化特征。研究结论显示:外资银行资产占比超过临界点后,外资银行进入会增大系统性金融风险,同时也可能导致金融市场风险上升;中资银行海外资产占比超过临界点后,境外投资会降低系统性金融风险,即银行业加大境外投资可能有利于维护金融稳定。The opening up of banking industry is a double-edged sword.On the one hand,it can guide commercial banks to integrate with the international market and expand their business scope and fields.On the other hand,it may also produce financial risk and have adverse effects on financial stability.Therefore,in the process of opening up to the outside world,it is very important to make full use of the strengths and avoid the weaknesses,and choose the appropriate"degree"of opening up.Relevant research can provide experience support and decision-making reference for the prevention and control of financial risk in the process of two-way opening up of China’s financial industry.Based on the macro data of the opening-up and financial risk of the banking sector from the first quarter of 2004 to the fourth quarter of 2018,this paper constructs the systemic financial risk pressure index and the risk pressure index of different financial markets.The TVAR model is used to test whether the opening-up of the banking sector exists"degree"and the changing characteristics of financial risk on both sides of"degree".The conclusion shows that when the proportion of foreign banks’assets exceeds the critical point,the entry of foreign banks will play a greater role in promoting systemic financial risk and may also lead to an increase in financial market risk.When the proportion of Chinese banks’overseas assets exceeds the critical point,overseas investment will reduce systemic financial risk.Increasing overseas investment of banking industry may help maintain financial stability.Relevant policy suggestions are as follows:the proportion of assets of foreign banks should not be too high;encourage Chinese banks to invest abroad,while improving their own risk management capabilities;prevent foreign banks from increasing financial market risk through indirect channels.

关 键 词：银行业开放 开放度 金融风险 TVAR模型 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学]