基于半马尔可夫过程的冷备系统维护策略优化  

Maintenance Policy Optimization for a Cold Standby System Based on Semi-Markov Process

作　　者：綦法群 周宏明[1] 庞继红[1] 徐文杰 QI Faqun;ZHOU Hongming;PANG Jihong;XU Wenjie(College of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering,Wenzhou University,Wenzhou,Zhejiang,325035;The 38th Research Institute of China Electronics Technology Group Corporation,Hefei,230088)

机构地区：[1]温州大学机电工程学院,温州325035 [2]中国电子科技集团有限公司第三十八研究所,合肥230088

出　　处：《中国机械工程》2020年第3期336-343,共8页China Mechanical Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71671130)

摘　　要：为了提高系统的可靠性,构建了两机冷备系统,提出了基于半马尔可夫过程的冷备系统预防性维护模型,该模型考虑随机失效、退化失效两种失效形式,采用了小修、大修、预防性维护相结合的维护方式。基于半马尔可夫理论及再生点技术分析了系统运行中的状态变化过程,建立了马尔可夫更新方程组。通过拉普拉斯变换求得系统首次平均失效时间和稳态可用度的函数表达式,并分别以系统首次平均失效时间和稳态可用度为可靠性指标求解最佳预防性维护策略。最后通过实例分析了不同参数变化对系统可靠性及最佳预防性维护周期的影响。实验结果表明,所提出的建模方法对解决冷备系统维护决策具有指导意义。In order to improve reliability of the systems,a cold standby system consisting of two components was constructed,and a semi-Markov process-based preventive maintenance model for a cold standby system was presented.Minor repair,major repair and preventive maintenance were applied in considering random failures and deterioration failure modes.State transition processes of the system were analyzed based on semi-Markov theory and regeneration point technique,and then the Markov renewal equations were established.By the application of Laplace transform to solve these equations,the mean time to the first system failure and the steady-state availability of the system were derived,and then the optimal preventive maintenance policy was identified by maximizing the two reliability performances of the system respectively.Finally,experiments were carried out to analyze the influences of different parameters on the system reliability and the optimal preventive maintenance cycle.Results indicate that the proposed model has guiding significance for cold standby system of maintenance decision-making problems.

关 键 词：冷备系统 半马尔可夫过程 再生点技术 预防性维护 维护策略优化 

分 类 号：TP29[自动化与计算机技术—检测技术与自动化装置]