互联网普及对地区就业的异质影响研究  

Research on the Heterogeneous Impact of Internet Popularization on Regional Employment

作　　者：崔兆财 周向红[1] CUI Zhao-cai;ZHOU Xiang-hong(School of Economics&Management,Tongji University,Shanghai 20092)

机构地区：[1]同济大学经济与管理学院

出　　处：《软科学》2020年第1期7-12,共6页Soft Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71473177);国家社会科学基金重大项目(13&ZD041)

摘　　要：借助动态异质面板模型的混合组均值(PMG)方法对互联网普及对地区就业的异质影响进行研究,结果发现互联网对就业影响存在短期和长期差异,即便各地区初始禀赋等的不同造成了互联网短期就业影响系数的异质性,但是长期均会收敛至正向影响;互联网普及影响就业的门槛特征,只有当区域内互联网普及水平、人力资本、对外开放程度和产业结构高级化程度超过某一阈值时,互联网才会对就业产生有利影响,稳健性检验结果进一步佐证了以上结论的可靠性。With Chow-test, Granger causality test and static panel estimation,this paper researches on the heterogeneous impact of internet popularization on regional employment.Results show that internet penetration is an important factor affecting the stability of regional employment, and has a negative impact on employment in the short term.Furthermore, the pooled mean group method of dynamic heterogeneous panel model reveals that the impact of Internet on employment differences in Short-term and long-term, even if the initial endowments of different regions cause the heterogeneity of the short-term employment impact coefficient, but in the long run it will converge to the positive impact;In addition, it also finds the threshold characteristics of the impact of Internet popularization on employment, only when Internet popularization, human resources capital, openness and industrial structure upgrading exceed a certain threshold, the Internet will have a beneficial impact on employment.At this time, the compensation effect is greater than the substitution effect.The overall employment effect is positive.The robustness test results further confirm the reliability of the above conclusions.

关 键 词：互联网 就业 混合组均值 门槛模型 动态异质面板 

分 类 号：F015[经济管理—政治经济学] F49