智能化背景下人口老龄化的产业结构升级效应  

The Industrial Structure Upgrading Effect of Population Aging under the Background of Intelligence

作　　者：王森[1] 王瑞瑜[1] 孙晓芳[1] WANG Sen;WANG Rui-yu;SUN Xiao-fang(School of Economics,Shanxi University of Finance and Economics,Taiyuan 030006)

机构地区：[1]山西财经大学经济学院

出　　处：《软科学》2020年第1期90-96,102,共8页Soft Science

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(18YJC790144、18YJC790116)

摘　　要：从四个方面分析人工智能影响下人口老龄化作用于产业结构升级的机制,基于2003~2017年31个省份数据,运用动态面板模型进行实证检验。研究表明:人口老龄化倒逼企业用资本和人工智能替代劳动力、催生智能养老产业,同时,人工智能填补人口老龄化带来的劳动力短缺、减缓由其导致的劳动生产率下降,从而促进产业结构升级。进一步地,当人工智能发展到一定程度时,人口老龄化对产业结构升级的正向作用更加明显,且人工智能强化这一效应的作用凸显。此外,人口老龄化对产业结构升级的影响具有区域异质性,经济竞争力强的地区,人口老龄化对产业结构升级的作用较小,但在人工智能影响下其对产业结构升级的作用较大。The paper analyzes the industrial structure upgrading mechanism of population aging under the influence of artificial intelligence from four aspects, and uses the data of 31 provinces from 2003 to 2017 to use the dynamic panel model for empirical testing.Research shows that the aging of the population forces companies to replace the labor force with capital and artificial intelligence, and promotes the smart old-age industry.At the same time, artificial intelligence fills the labor shortage caused by the aging of the population, and weakens the decline of labor productivity caused by it, and promotes the industrial structure upgrade.Further, when artificial intelligence develops to a certain extent, the positive effect of population aging on the upgrading of industrial structure is more obvious, and the effect of artificial intelligence to strengthen this effect is prominent.In addition, the impact of population aging on industrial structure upgrading has regional heterogeneity.In areas with strong economic competitiveness, population aging has little effect on industrial structure upgrading, but its effect on industrial structure upgrading is strongly affected by artificial intelligence.

关 键 词：人工智能 人口老龄化 产业结构升级 GMM模型 

分 类 号：F121.3[经济管理—世界经济] C924[社会学—人口学]