Response of Asiatic ibex(Capra sibirica) under Climate Change Scenarios  

不同气候变化情景下亚洲北山羊（Capra sibirica）的响应（英文）

作　　者：Eric Ariel L.SALAS Raul VALDEZ Stefan MICHEL Kenneth G.BOYKIN Eric Ariel L.SALAS;Raul VALDEZ;Stefan MICHEL;Kenneth G.BOYKIN(美国中央州立大学科学与工程学院,美国俄亥俄州45384;新墨西哥州立大学鱼类、野生生物与保护生态系,美国新墨西哥州88003;世界自然保护联盟物种生存委员会,德国卡纳伍夫D-06578)

机构地区：[1]Agricultural Research and Development Program,College of Science and Engineering,Central State University,Wilberforce,OH 45384,USA [2]Department of Fish,Wildlife and Conservation Ecology,New Mexico State University,Las Cruces,NM 88003,USA [3]IUCN Species Survival Commission,Caprinae Specialist Group,Kannawurf D-06578,Germany

出　　处：《Journal of Resources and Ecology》2020年第1期27-37,共11页资源与生态学报（英文版）

基　　金：The Safari Club International Foundation(SCIF);The Federal Government of Germany via Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit Gmb H(3393)

摘　　要：We investigated the effects of climate change on the distribution of the Asiatic ibex(Capra sibirica)in eastern Tajikistan.No existing climate change studies have been conducted on the habitat of a wild goat species in Asia.We conducted ecological niche modelling to compare potential present and future distributions of suitable environmental conditions for ibex.Projecting to 2070,18%(2689 km^2)of the current suitable areas would be lost,mostly located in the southeastern and northwestern regions of the study area.However,new suitable habitats could expand outside the current ibex range—about 30%(4595 km^2)expansion until 2070.We found that the elevation,terrain roughness,seasonal temperature,and precipitation of warmest quarter were the most important factors in the models and had strong correlations to ibex distribution.The losses in the southeastern portion overlapped most of the current locations of ibex in that region.These losses were observed in the much lower elevations of the study area(3500 m to 4000 m).When considering both loss and gain,the ibex could see a net expansion to new suitable habitats.About 30%(1379 km^2)of the average habitat gains for the Asiatic ibex in 2070 showed a shift to northern lower temperature habitats.Our results are beneficial in planning for the potential effects on biodiversity conservation in the eastern mountain region of Tajikistan under climate change scenarios.Special attention should be given to the ibex populations in the southeastern region,where habitats could become unsuitable for the species as a result of the climate-induced effects on the mountain ecosystem.目前很少见到关于气候变化影响亚洲北山羊物种栖息地的研究。通过调查气候变化对塔吉克斯坦东部亚洲北山羊(Capra sibirica)分布的影响,并采用生态位建模比较了亚洲北山羊的适宜栖息地的当前与未来分布情况。预计到2070年,现有适宜栖息地的18%(2689 km^2)将变得不适宜亚洲北山羊的生存,损失的区域主要位于研究区域的东南部和西北部地区。新的适宜栖息地可能会扩展到当前亚洲北山羊范围之外:到2070年将扩展30%(4595 km^2)的范围,这些区域与亚洲北山羊现有的分布有很强的相关性。东南部的损失与该地区当前大多数的亚洲北山羊栖息地重叠,主要出现在比研究区域海拔低得多的区域(3500–4000 m)。当同时考虑损失和收益时,亚洲北山羊可能会净扩展到新的适宜栖息地。到2070年,亚洲北山羊的平均栖息地增加量约为30%(1379 km^2),表明适宜栖息地已向北部低温栖息地转移。研究结果有助于规划气候变化情景下塔吉克斯坦东部山区对生物多样性保护的潜在影响。应该特别注意东南地区的高地山羊种群,那里的栖息地可能由于气候对山区生态系统的影响而变得不适合该物种继续生存。

关 键 词：ensemble forecasting models global climate change species distribution modeling mountain ungulates 

分 类 号：Q958[生物学—动物学]