主-供模式下大型客机协同研制的演化博弈分析  

Evolutionary game analysis of co-development of large passenger aircraft under main manufacturer-supplier mode

作　　者：张明[1] 朱建军[1] 王翯华[2] Zhang Ming;Zhu Jianjun;Wang Hehua(College of Economics and Management,Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing 211106,China;School of Business,Jinling Institute of Technology,Nanjing 211169,China)

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,江苏南京211106 [2]金陵科技学院商学院,江苏南京211169

出　　处：《系统工程学报》2019年第6期748-759,共12页Journal of Systems Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71502073,71372080,71171112);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(NS2014086);教育部人文社科基金资助项目(14YJC630120);江苏省普通高校学术学位研究生创新计划资助项目(KYLX16_0307).

摘　　要：研究大型客机协同研制过程中考虑第三方监管的主制造商和供应商合作机制.基于贝叶斯思想刻画监管部门策略选择概率,运用演化博弈理论,探讨了主制造商能力与供应商态度的演化机制,以及监管部门的策略选择对合作的影响.研究结果表明,博弈系统存在9个纯平衡策略组合和39个混合平衡策略组合,不同的约束条件存在不同的演化稳定策略组合;供应商的合作态度不仅与主制造商的合作能力有关,亦受监管部门策略选择以及其策略选择的固定成本、最初选择策略程度的影响.主制造商能力越强,供应商与监管部门选择参与协同研制策略的程度会有所增强,增强的幅度随着主制造商能力的增强而由小变大.This paper studies the cooperation mechanism between the main manufacturers and suppliers in the process of collaborative development of large passenger aircraft with the third party supervision considered.The strategic choice probability form ula for supervision departm ent is depicted based on Bayes form ula,the evolutionary mechanism of main manufacturer’s ability and suppliers’cooperative attitude,and the impact of strategic choice of supervision department on the cooperation are explored with evolutionary game theory applied.The result shows that there exists nine pure and thirty-nine mixed balance strategy combinations in the game system.T he evolutionary stability strategy com bination varies depending on different constraints.Suppliers’cooperative attitude is in relationship with not only main manufacturer’s ability,but supervision departm ent’s choice,relative fixed cost and the initial probability.The stronger main manufacturer’s ability is,the more suppliers and supervision department are likely to participate in the cooperation.And the increasing magnitude becomes bigger and bigger along with that.

关 键 词：“主-供”模式 协同研制 初创期 演化博弈 能力 态度 

分 类 号：F224.32[经济管理—国民经济]