中部地区人口结构与产业结构的时空耦合  

Spatio-Temporal Coupling of Population Structure and Industrial Structure in Central China

作　　者：赵建吉[1,2] 王艳华[1,2] 张洁[1] 冯海龙[1] 苗长虹[1,2] ZHAO Jianji;WANG Yanhua;ZHANG Jie;FENG Hailong;MIAO Changhong(Key Research Institute of Yellow River Civilization and Sustainable Development&Collaborative Innovation Center of Yellow River Civilization,Henan University,Kaifeng 475001,Henan,China;College of Environment and Planning,Henan University,Kaifeng 475001,Henan,China)

机构地区：[1]河南大学黄河文明与可持续发展研究中心暨黄河文明协同创新中心,中国河南开封475001 [2]河南大学环境与规划学院,中国河南开封475001

出　　处：《经济地理》2019年第12期129-137,共9页Economic Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41601119、41430637、41301115);教育部人文社会科学基金项目(15YJC790111、19YJA790123);中国科协高端科技创新智库青年项目(DXB-ZKQN-2017-027);河南省科技发展计划软科学研究项目(172400410005);河南省高等学校重点科研项目(17B170004、18A790012)

摘　　要：中部地区是我国重要的人口集聚区,正处于工业化加速发展阶段,面临着产业转型升级的重任,研究人口结构与产业结构的耦合对于推动区域高质量发展具有重要的理论与现实意义。在对人口结构与产业结构互动机理进行理论分析的基础上,以中部地区84个地级市为研究对象,利用灰色关联度和耦合度模型,定量研究了人口结构和产业结构的时空耦合。结果表明:①1993—2016年中部地区人口结构和产业结构的耦合度整体上呈现“倒U型”趋势,经历了低水平耦合、趋向拮抗并最终走向协调发展的变化过程;②中部地区内部,湖北耦合度最高,河南耦合度最低,山西和河南耦合度变化趋势较为相似;③中部地区人口与产业结构系统耦合可以划分为协调型耦合、磨合型耦合、拮抗型耦合和低水平协调耦合等四种类型,不同地区耦合类型空间异质性明显,四种类型城市的比重为5.9%、16.6%、19.1%和58.3%;④人口与产业耦合度空间分布以低水平耦合类型为主,在空间上呈现出集聚特征。Central China is an important population agglomeration area,which is in the stage of accelerated development of industrialization,facing the heavy responsibility of industrial transformation and upgrading.A study on the coupling of population structure and industrial structure will have important theoretical and policy implications for the high-quality development in central China.This paper analyzed the interaction mechanism between population structure and industrial structure,taking 84 prefecture-level cities in the central region as the research object,the grey correlation and coupling degree model were used to quantitatively study the coupling characteristics of the population system and industrial structure of the central region.The results showed that:First,during 1993-2016,the coupling degree of population structure and industrial structure shows an overall trend of"inverted U"in central China,and experienced low-level coupling trend,antagonistic trend,and coordinated trend.Secondly,among the six provinces in central China,Hubei has the highest coupling degree and Henan has the lowest coupling degree.Shanxi and Hunan have the similar change of coupling degree.Thirdly,combined with the comprehensive indicators of economic development,the central China can be divided into four types:coordinated coupling,running-in coupling,antagonistic coupling and low-level coordinated coupling,the proportion of the four types of cities is 5.9%,16.6%,19.1% and 58.3%.Fourthly,the spatial heterogeneity of coupling types in different regions is obvious;low-level coupling types dominate the spatial distribution of population and industry coupling,and it presents agglomeration characteristics in space.

关 键 词：人口结构 产业结构 时空耦合 转型升级 劳动人口 中部地区 

分 类 号：C922[社会学—人口学] F269.24