考虑高比例可再生能源出力不确定性的电力流规划方法  

Electricity Flow Planning Method for High Penetration of Renewable Energy

作　　者：孙珂 赵鹏飞[2] 韩晓男 孙英云[2] SUN Ke;ZHAO Pengfei;HAN Xiaonan;SUN Yingyun(State Power Economic Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Changping District,Beijing 102209,China;School of Electrical and Electronics Engineering,North China Electric Power University,Changping District,Beijing 102206,China)

机构地区：[1]国网经济技术研究院有限公司,北京市昌平区102209 [2]华北电力大学电气与电子工程学院,北京市昌平区102206

出　　处：《电网技术》2020年第1期79-85,共7页Power System Technology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFB0900100);国家自然科学基金项目(51777065)~~

摘　　要：可再生能源接入比例的不断增加给包括电力流规划在内的电力系统规划工作提出了新的挑战,要求电力流规划必须考虑高比例可再生能源接入所带来的不确定性影响。提出了负荷水平模式的概念,对不同负荷水平出现时间和频度进行了分析,进而根据历史数据给出相应负荷水平下风、光等可再生能源出力的概率统计性特征及相应场景。在此基础上,建立了以社会总成本最小为目标的电力流规划模型,并采用了负荷水平模式+概率场景的方法来处理不同负荷水平下的可再生能源不确定性,可有效缩减不确定性的概率空间,提高了规划的精度和可靠性。最后利用某区域电网算例对所提模型进行了验证,并与现有主流不确定性规划方法进行了对比,仿真算例结果验证了所提模型的有效性。Increasing penetration of renewable energy brings new challenges to power system planning,including electricity flow planning.It requires to take the effects of the uncertainties of high penetration of renewable energy into account.This paper proposes a concept of load level mode,analyzes the time and frequency characteristics of different load levels,and then gives the statistical probability characteristics and corresponding scenarios of renewable energy output such as wind and photovoltaic based on historical data.Based on this,to minimize overall social cost,an electricity flow planning model is built,adopting the load level mode plus scenarios with probability to deal with the uncertainty of renewable energy under different load levels.This method can effectively reduce the probability range of uncertainties and improve accuracy and reliability of the planning.Furthermore,validity of the model is verified with a regional power grid example.Comparison of simulation results with existing mainstream uncertainty planning methods show effectiveness of the proposed model.

关 键 词：高比例可再生能源 负荷水平模式 电力流规划 场景概率法 

分 类 号：TM721[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]