我国农村合作金融发展的影响因素分析——基于调查问卷及层次分析法  

Analysis on the Factors Influencing the Development of Rural Cooperative Finance in China:Based on Questionnaire Survey and Analytic Hierarchy Process

作　　者：贾蕊蕊 郭琨 JIA Ruirui;GUO Kun(School of Economics and Management,UCAS,Beijing 100190;Shixin Holdings Co.,Ltd.,Beijing,100101;Research Center on Fictitious Economy&Data Science,CAS,Beijing 100190)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院大学经济与管理学院,北京100190 [2]北京世欣控股有限公司,北京100101 [3]中国科学院虚拟经济与数据科学研究中心,北京100190

出　　处：《科技促进发展》2019年第8期808-818,共11页Science & Technology for Development

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(71501175):基于耗散股票系统理论模型的中国股票市场演化分析,负责人:郭琨

摘　　要：我国农村合作金融经历了近70年的变迁,已经逐步进入规范化及规模化的发展阶段。2019年年初,5部委联合发布《关于金融服务乡村振兴的指导意见》要求农村合作金融(农村信用合作社、农村商业银行、农村合作银行)立足服务县域市场,发挥支农主力军作用,并要求新型农村合作金融继续开展试点。在此背景下,我国农村合作金融将迎来新一轮的发展机遇。由于该组织体系的特殊性,信息透明度不高,加之我国农村信贷市场的不完善及地区差异性,在很大程度上依赖政策调节,因此很难仅用定量的方法来分析如此复杂的发展问题。本文采用专家问卷的形式,调研农村合作金融的市场影响力、服务能力及发展难点,并依据调研及实践经验建立层次模型,通过层次分析法得出各影响因素的权重,旨在透过分析各因素的重要性来发现其背后的问题,并给出我国农村合作金融未来发展的合理化建议。After undergoing 70-year changes, Chinese rural cooperative finance has entered the stage of standardization and scale development gradually. At the beginning of 2019, five ministries jointly issued the Guidance on the Rural Revitalization of Financial Services, which required rural cooperative finance(rural credit cooperatives, rural commercial banks and rural cooperative banks) to play a role of main force in supporting agriculture based on the markets of various counties and required new rural cooperative finance to carry out pilot projects continuously. Under this background, China’s rural cooperative finance will meet a new round of development opportunities. Due to the particularity of the organization system, low information transparency, imperfect rural credit market in China and regional differences, policy regulations are relied on to a large extent. Therefore, it is difficult to analyze such a complex development problem by the quantitative method only. Taking the form of distributing expert questionnaire, this paper investigates the market influence of rural cooperative finance, service ability and difficulties for development, and builds the hierarchical model according to surveys and practical experience, obtains the weight of each influencing factor through the analytic hierarchy process, aims to find the problems through the analysis of the importance of various factors, and gives rational suggestions for the future development of rural cooperative finance in China.

关 键 词：农村合作金融 问卷调查 层次分析法 政策建议 

分 类 号：F832.35[经济管理—金融学]