基于类比法的短生命周期产品需求扩散预测研究  

Research on Demand Diffusion Forecasting of Short-Life-Cycle Products Based on Analogy

作　　者：唐中君[1] 吴凡 TANG Zhongjun;WU Fan(School of Economics and Management,Beijing University of Technology,Beijing 100124)

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学经济与管理学院

出　　处：《科技促进发展》2019年第8期841-850,共10页Science & Technology for Development

基　　金：2017国家自然科学基金面上项目(71672004):基于类比推理的短生命周期无形体验品需求预测,负责人:唐中君

摘　　要：为解决短生命周期产品因缺乏历史数据导致其需求扩散预测难的问题,构建了类比产品相似度度量方法和改进Bass模型,在此基础上提出基于类比法的短生命周期产品需求扩散预测方法,并根据该方法得到相应数理模型。以2011~2016年华谊兄弟出品的20部电影产品为例,对所建模型进行验证,并与3个对比模型的预测精度进行比较。结果显示,本研究的预测精度最高。得出结论:本研究提出的基于类比法的需求扩散预测方法更适用于短生命周期产品。Demand diffusion forecasting of short-life-cycle products becomes difficult due to the lack of historical sales data, and it brings forward the problem that this paper intends to resolve. This paper constructs the similarity measure method and improved Bass model. On this basis, a demand diffusion forecasting method of short-life-cycle products based on analogy method is proposed, and the corresponding mathematical model is obtained. The paper tests the proposed model using correlative data of movies produced by Huayi Brothers, which released during the period from 2011 to 2016 in China. Empirical results show that the proposed model delivers better performance than previous models in term of forecasting precision. In conclusion, the proposed demand diffusion forecasting method based on analogy is more suitable for short-life-cycle products.

关 键 词：短生命周期产品 需求扩散 预测 相似度度量 改进Bass模型 

分 类 号：J943[艺术—电影电视艺术] F224[经济管理—国民经济]