巴尔干地缘文明断层与“一带一路”市场整合  

Balkan Geopolitical Faults and Market Integration of the“Belt and Road”

作　　者：陆钢[1] Lu Gang

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学中亚研究中心

出　　处：《社会科学》2020年第1期19-28,共10页Journal of Social Sciences

摘　　要：巴尔干地区是中东欧重要的地缘政治板块,其多山的地理形势造成了巴尔干地缘文明的碎片化和断层线。"一带一路"进入巴尔干半岛虽然初见成效,考虑到该地区曾是"欧洲的火药桶",先后多次卷入战争,对此,中国需要保持足够的战略谨慎。一方面,在推进"一带一路"过程中,充分考量巴尔干半岛基于地缘文明断层的复杂政治态势,这包括巴尔干半岛国家的民意变化以及欧美主要国家在巴尔干半岛的政治介入,它们将共同构成"一带一路"得以顺利推进的不确定因素。另一方面,碎片化的巴尔干半岛也是市场化的一种"优势",它预示着充分的市场潜力。通过文明碎片化的整合,存在跨越地缘文明断层的发展空间,这无疑与"一带一路"的市场一体化实践是相吻合的。因此,中国"一带一路"倡议在巴尔干半岛的推进,需要尽可能考虑巴尔干的区情,特别是其处于地缘文明断层所带来的碎片化风险格局,借助巴尔干文明合作的趋势,确立与巴尔干大市场相一致的"一带一路"市场整合发展取向,这既有利于中国规避战略风险,也有利于推动巴尔干地区跨越文明断层线并走向一体化。The Balkans are an important geopolitical plate in Central and Eastern Europe,and its mountainous geography has created fragmentation and fault lines in the Balkan geopolitical civilization.The"Belt and Road"’s entry into the Balkans has achieved some initial success,but given that the region has been a powder keg for Europe and has been involved in many wars,China needs to maintain sufficient strategic caution.On the one hand,in the process of promoting the"Belt and Road",due consideration was given to the complex political situation in the Balkans Peninsula based on the fault lines of geopolitical civilization,including changes in public opinion of the Balkan countries and the political involvement of major European and American powers in the Balkans,which together will create uncertainty about smoothly promotion of the"Belt and Road".On the other hand,the fragmented Balkan Peninsula is also a market advantage,which indicates sufficient market potential.Through the integration of civilization fragments,there is a development space spanning the geopolitical fault,undoubtedly consistent with the market integration practice of the"Belt and Road".Therefore,the promotion of the"Belt and Road"Initiative in the Balkans needs to take the regional situation of the Balkans into account as far as possible,especially the fragmentation risk pattern brought about by geopolitical faults.With the help of the trend of Balkan civilization cooperation,the establishment of an integrated development orientation for the"Belt and Road",which is consistent with the large Balkan markets,will help China to avoid strategic risks,and also to promote the Balkans to cross the fault line of civilization and move towards integration.

关 键 词：“一带一路” 文明断层线 巴尔干市场 “17+1” 

分 类 号：F125.4[经济管理—世界经济]