一种基于证据理论的战时备件需求预测方法  

Demand Forecasting of Wartime Spares Based on Evidence Theory

作　　者：张云景 王鑫鑫[1] 王洋 汤光明[1] Zhang Yunjing;Wang Xinxin;Wang Yang;Tang Guangming(PLA Information and Technology University,Zhengzhou 450001,China)

机构地区：[1]解放军信息工程大学

出　　处：《系统仿真学报》2020年第2期314-322,共9页Journal of System Simulation

基　　金：国家社科基金军事学项目(13GJ003-066)

摘　　要：为解决战时备件需求预测缺乏数据的问题,提出一种基于证据理论的战时备件需求预测方法。构建马尔可夫链模型,从备件需求历史数据中挖掘平时备件需求规律;进而设计一种基于战斗强度变化的战时备件需求马尔可夫链转移概率调整策略,用于模拟战时备件需求规律;最后结合专家经验,综合利用模糊理论和证据理论实现对战时备件需求的预测。仿真算例表明,该方法能够有效实现战时备件需求的预测。A new method based on evidence theory is proposed to solve the lack of data for the demand prediction of spares in wartime. Utilizing Markov chain model to research the rule of spares demand of peacetime from the historical data. A Markov chain transfer probability adjustment strategy, based on the change of combat intensity, is designed, which can be used to simulation the rule of spares demand in wartime. Under the experience of experts and the combination of the Fuzzy theory and evidence theory, the spares demand is wartime is forecasted. The simulation example shows that the method can effectively predict the spares demand of wartime.

关 键 词：战时 备件需求预测 证据理论 战斗强度 模糊理论 

分 类 号：TP182[自动化与计算机技术—控制理论与控制工程]