财政压力与地方政府债务扩张——基于北京市全口径政府债务数据的准自然实验分析  

Fiscal Stress and Local Government Debt Expansion: A Quasi-Natural Experimental Analysis Based on Full-Aperture Data from the Beijing Government’s Debt

作　　者：毛捷[1] 韩瑞雪 徐军伟 Mao Jie;Han Ruixue;Xu Junwei(University of International Business and Economics,Beijing)

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院

出　　处：《经济社会体制比较》2020年第1期22-33,共12页Comparative Economic & Social Systems

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“新时代下地方政府债务风险的新特征与监管研究”(项目编号:18ZDA097)

摘　　要：文章关注财政压力对地方政府债务扩张的影响,以2008年企业所得税改革("两税合一")作为地方政府财政压力变化的准自然实验,利用北京市全口径政府债务数据及其他数据,采用双重差分法进行实证分析。研究发现:(1)2008年企业所得税改革使得地方政府财政压力增大,进而刺激地方政府债务的扩张,即财政压力增加10%,人均地方政府债务增长34.66%;(2)上述效应具有滞后性与持续性,债务扩张效应从税改第2年(即2009年)开始显著表现出来,且该效应在之后数年内持续存在;(3)通过平行趋势检验、扩大样本时间跨度和安慰剂检验等一系列稳健性检验,证实上述效应确由2008年企业所得税改革引起,而非其他因素导致;(4)异质性分析表明,在第二产业基础薄弱的地区和财政自给率较高的地区,财政压力的债务扩张效应更加显著。文章的研究结论为深刻认识地方政府债务扩张内在机制提供了基于北京市等特定地区的可靠证据。This paper focuses on the impact of fiscal pressure on the expansion of local government debt, takes the reform of enterprise income tax in 2008("Income Tax Integration") as a quasi-natural experiment of the change of local government fiscal pressure, uses the data from Beijing’s full-caliber government debt and other data, and employs the difference-in-difference methods for empirical analysis. The results show that:(1) In 2008, the reform of enterprise income tax increased the fiscal pressure of local governments, which stimulated the expansion of local government debt. That is, the fiscal pressure increased by 10%, and the per capita local government debt increased by 34.66%.(2) The above effects are lasting and persistent. The effect of debt expansion had been significantly manifested since the second year of tax reform(2009), and the effect has continued for several years since then.(3) Through a series of robustness tests, such as parallel trend tests, extended sample time span and placebo tests, it was proved that the above effect was caused by the reform of the corporate income tax in 2008, rather than other factors.(4) A heterogeneity analysis shows that the debt expansion effect of financial pressure is more significant in the regions with a weak secondary industry foundation and a higher financial self-sufficiency rate. The conclusion of this paper provides reliable evidence for deeply understanding the internal mechanism of local government debt expansion, especially in important regions such as Beijing.

关 键 词：财政压力 全口径 债务扩张效应 两税合一 

分 类 号：F812.7[经济管理—财政学]