黄河源秋季洪峰对西风指数的响应  

Responses of autumn flood peak in the Yellow River source regions to westerly circulation index

作　　者：孙立群[1] 李铁键[2,3] 李晴岚 吴一平 SUN Liqun;LI Tiejian;LI Qinglan;WU Yiping(Shenzhen Institutes of Advanced Technology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Shenzhen 518055,China;State Key Laboratory of Plateau Ecology and Agriculture,Qinghai University,Xining 810016,China;State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;School of Human Settlements&Civil Engineering,Xi'an Jiaotong University,Xi'an 710049,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院深圳先进技术研究院,广东深圳518055 [2]青海大学三江源生态与高原农牧业国家重点实验室,青海西宁810016 [3]清华大学水沙科学与水利水电工程国家重点实验室,北京100084 [4]西安交通大学人居环境与建筑工程学院,陕西西安710049

出　　处：《冰川冻土》2019年第6期1475-1482,共8页Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology

基　　金：广东省科技发展专项资金项目(2016A050503035,2017A030310057);国家自然科学基金项目(51679233);十三五国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFE0201900,2017YFC0403600)资助

摘　　要：分析了1961-2010年黄河源的水文气象要素的演变过程。由于丰水期(7月、8月、9月)降水减少而温度升高,导致黄河源年径流及降水总体上呈非显著减少趋势,且1990年代以来9月份秋季洪峰消失。以30年为一个时间窗口,使用偏相关方法,分别计算了黄河源丰水期的降水、径流与WCI(西风指数)、ENSO(厄尔尼诺-南方涛动)和IOD(印度洋偶极子)的偏相关关系并排除了ENSO、IOD与WCI之间的共同作用,发现WCI对黄河源丰水期径流影响要高于ENSO与IOD,WCI的增强可能是黄河源8月降水减少及9月洪峰消减的主要因素。The variations of precipitation and runoff in the Yellow River source regions fromtohas been studied.Due to the decrease in precipitation during the wet season(July,August and September)and the increase in temperature,the annual runoff and precipitation in the river source regions had showed an overall non-significant decrease,and the flood peak has disappeared in September since the1990 s.By using the partial correlation method,the relationship between precipitation and runoff with ENSO(El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation),IOD(Indian Ocean Dipole)and WCI(Westerly Circulation Index)were calculated for July,August and September in each30-year moving window after removing the co-variate effects among ENSO,IOD,and WCI.It is found that the influence of WCI on the runoff of the Yellow River in wet season is higher than those of the ENSO and IOD,and the increase of the WCI maybe the main driven factor for the Yellow River source precipitation and flood peak decreasing in August and September,respectively.

关 键 词：黄河源 降水 径流 西风指数 厄尔尼诺-南方涛动 印度洋偶极子 偏相关系数 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]