中国投机程度影响因素的分析与政策安排  

An Analysis of Influential Factors in the Degree of Speculation in China and Policy Arrangements

作　　者：王少梅[1] 衣娜 孙丽[1] Wang Shaomei;Yi Na;Sun Li

机构地区：[1]山东财经大学经济学院 [2]山东财经大学统计学院

出　　处：《宏观经济研究》2019年第12期102-111,共10页Macroeconomics

基　　金：国家社科基金项目“DT时代中国投机资本与实体资本均衡发展的宏观制度供给选择研究”(批准号:16BJY005)的阶段性研究成果;全国哲学社会科学规划办的资助

摘　　要：中国经济新常态下,GDP的收敛增长与房地产等资产市场的投机泡沫挤出相关。为此我们首先从数据变化角度分析了投机程度与经济增长的关系,并探讨了GDP增幅呈现Γ型特征的原因,然后基于LASSO方法,分析影响中国投资与投机市场失衡(投机程度过高)、投机资本增速过快的因素,进而探索实现中国GDP均衡增长的政策制衡机制。在货币金融市场上,配合财政部继续交替实行差别化的宽紧"银根"政策,降低地方政府、银行、企业高杠杆率的资产投机行为尤其是居民资产杠杆率和M2/GDP比率;在实体投资领域,通过金融机制、科技制度平台构建,加大资产市场投机的机会成本,鼓励军民融合等创业、创新和科技的外部溢出效应,疏通并引导沉淀在房地产等金融市场各环节的投机资本流向实体经济;在对外收支分配领域,以政策机制促进国内产业、产品结构升级替代,增强知识创新行业投资的利润意识和企业家的预期信心指数,降低资本项目流动的弹性和人民币汇率上升的预期。Under the new normal of China’s economy, the convergence of GDP growth is related to the speculative bubble extrusion of real estate and other asset markets. To this end, we first analyze the relationship between speculation and economic growth from the perspective of data change, and explore the reason why GDP growth shows the characteristics of γ type, then analyze the impact of China’s investment and speculative market imbalance(excessive speculation) based on LASSO method. The factors that increase the rate of speculative capital growth are too fast, and then explore the policy checks and balances mechanism to achieve balanced GDP growth in China. In the monetary and financial markets, in conjunction with the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Finance will continue to implement differentiated and tight ‘money root’ policies to reduce the high-leverage asset speculation of local governments, banks and enterprises, especially the leverage ratio of household assets and the M2/GDP ratio;In the investment field, through the construction of financial institutions, science and technology platforms, increase the opportunity cost of speculation in the asset market, encourage the external spillover effects of entrepreneurship, innovation and technology such as military-civilian integration, and unblock and guide the speculative capital that precipitates in all aspects of financial markets such as real estate. Flowing to the real economy;in the field of external revenue and expenditure distribution, using policy mechanisms to promote the upgrading of domestic industries and product structures, enhancing the profit awareness of investment in knowledge-innovation industries and the expected confidence index of entrepreneurs, reducing the flexibility of capital account flows and the rise of the RMB exchange rate expected.

关 键 词：投机程度 套索(LASSO)回归 边际收益 杠杆率 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济] F832.5